Russia will use nuclear weapons if NATO tries to block Kaliningrad. That was the unequivocal warning from the Kremlin last week. In reality, this is an empty threat against a non-existent danger. Russia's nuclear bluff has been worn out by overuse, and NATO has no such intention. This is what Edward Lucas, founder and director of the Baltic International Security Center, writes for EUobserver.
"But this statement nevertheless shows something important: Russia's sensitivity towards Kaliningrad.
The northern half of the former German territory of East Prussia is the Kremlin's last major trophy since the Soviet victory over Hitler in 1945.
As with many trophies, upon closer inspection it turns out to be less impressive. Kaliningrad is an artificial entity — from its name (named after the war criminal Mikhail Kalinin) to its population (relocated there after ethnic cleansing) and its southern border (a rough straight line like those European colonizers drew in African countries).
Now Moscow’s grip on this exclave — a piece of Russian territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania — is becoming increasingly precarious. Not because someone will cut off the fragile air, sea, and land routes that supply it, but because of Russia’s all-too-real, corrupt, authoritarian, and incompetent system of government.
The weakness of the Russian system, compounded by the cost of the disastrous war in Ukraine, makes keeping Kaliningrad unsustainable — economically, socially, demographically and politically.
Commentaries outside Russia largely miss this, presenting Kaliningrad as a fortress from which Moscow can threaten its neighbors.
It is more realistic to view it the other way around — as Russia's greatest strategic vulnerability: its Achilles' heel.
The think tank "Baltic International Center for Security" (BMCS) is conducting a large-scale research project called "Kaliningrad 2050".
The name itself poses a hidden question: Do you really believe that Kaliningrad will still be under Moscow's rule by mid-century? That seems increasingly unlikely.
This week, the BMCS will gather 20 experts for crisis simulations to explore how the Kremlin's rule could collapse and how neighboring countries could, would, and should respond.
For now, the causes are imaginary. But an ecological disaster, a fuel supply collapse, or a public health emergency like the one currently unfolding in Siberia are all possible in Russia's current state of disarray. Politicians and responsible institutions will have to respond to the resulting refugee flows, pollution and humanitarian needs.
We do not yet know what the outcome of the BMCS study will be: as with military "games", the aim of these exercises is to test how different scenarios would play out. We hope that the conclusions will be useful for those who face these dilemmas in real life.
The next step will be a book - "Fragile Fortress", to be published later this year. Edited by the British observer of Russia affairs Christopher Peters and written by local and foreign experts, it examines topics as diverse as the politics of memory, economic weaknesses, internal repression and the state of public opinion. The main message is that Kaliningrad survives only thanks to economic subsidies and political support from Moscow.
These efforts could hardly be more timely.
As the Kremlin gloats over the NATO threat, alarmist social media posts present alleged Russian invasion plans that would start from Kaliningrad, publishing maps with thick red arrows piercing the Suwalki Corridor — a strategic stretch of land that connects Poland and Lithuania.
But as the book’s military chapter shows, such an attack is impossible under current (or likely) conditions. Russia has almost no ground forces in Kaliningrad: all of them have been sent to Ukraine. The Russian air force there also lacks the airfields and hangars necessary for real warfare.
NATO, especially since Sweden and Finland joined the Alliance, has overwhelming superiority on land, sea and air in the region — a fact underlined by its recent surveillance exercises in the area.
In short, nuclear weapons rattling is irrelevant. No one threatens Kaliningrad from the outside. And the real question is when and how, not if, the Kremlin will eventually lose it".
Source: news.bg