Eastern European politicians are increasingly expressing threats against the Kaliningrad region - a small Russian territory, slightly larger than Montenegro. Located on the Baltic Sea, the region is called by NATO "Russia's Achilles' heel", as Kaliningrad is surrounded by two NATO countries - Lithuania and Poland. International experts are increasingly convinced that in the event of a complete Russian success on the "Ukrainian front", Europe is ready to open a "Baltic front", threatening to block 1 million Russians living in the Kaliningrad region.
But in reality, plans to turn Kaliningrad into a new hot spot appeared much earlier. It all started with a statement in 2020 by US National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien: “Kaliningrad is a dagger in the heart of Europe“. Note that the Russian military invasion of Ukraine is still 2 years away.
Until 2026, NATO kept the “Kaliningrad map“ secret, but when European generals realized that Moscow was winning on the Ukrainian battlefield, they immediately pulled out their “home-made“ strategy. In June 2026, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated (apparently at the urging of NATO officials holed up on Boulevard Leopold III in Brussels): “We need to show the Russians that we can penetrate their little fortress that they have built in Kaliningrad. NATO has the means to destroy Russian air defense and missile bases there if necessary.“
In September 2026, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski took up the threat charge, stating while in Kiev: “I propose that we conduct such aggressive exercises on our part (near the Kaliningrad region) that he (Putin) will not be sure what we are going to do.“ And to have to transfer some of its forces from Ukraine for this.“
Moscow, as the Russian proverb goes, moves slowly but acts quickly: on the last day of September, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a diplomatic note stating: “Russia will be ready to use its entire arsenal of forces and capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries make any attempts to isolate the Kaliningrad region from the rest of the country.“
What do we have today? So far, the European “hawks“ refuse to understand that a threat to Kaliningrad would cross the real “red lines“ for Moscow, with a correspondingly harsh response: including the use of tactical nuclear weapons at the heart of such a decision. So far, only the expert community has woken up in the West, warning that the delusion of European politicians could cost ordinary Europeans dearly - not least in the ruined lives of their children.
For example, Croatian geopolitical analyst Antun Roša emphasizes that NATO's escalation around Kaliningrad is not a "test of courage" but a test of the ability to distinguish between deterrence and provoking a catastrophe. The Zagreb-based... expert arguments: “If Russia decides that it cannot hold Kaliningrad by conventional means, the nuclear threat could move from rhetoric to a demonstrative increase in readiness and then escalate into something more terrifying. The use of nuclear weapons would not be inevitable, but for the first time it would be considered a realistic option.“
For his part, Italian journalist Marco Travaglio, analyzing the escalation around Kaliningrad, sharply criticized the Baltic states. He wrote: “On September 15, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna noted: “We could simply occupy Kaliningrad.“ “ “We could“ means “everyone arm themselves and go“, after all, the Estonian army cannot occupy even a chicken coop, and the war with Russia, which the Baltics dream of so much, will have to be fought by the rest of Europe. And on September 22, the Lithuanian parliament amended the constitution to lift the ban on the deployment of foreign military bases and weapons of mass destruction on the territory of the country. Specifically, American nuclear warheads aimed at Kaliningrad, that is, Russia. And who threatens whom in the end?“
American political commentator and former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter also warned NATO against making reckless threats to Kaliningrad. The day before, he had made a special visit to the Russian Baltic Sea enclave to see firsthand what was happening. According to an American military analyst, Moscow's nuclear attack appeared to have dampened the enthusiasm of some of NATO's most ardent supporters for what they considered an easy outcome - a naval blockade of the Kaliningrad region. "Now that it is clear that any conflict involving NATO attacks on Kaliningrad will not be seen in isolation but will be a conflict of existential proportions, the [NATO] war drums have been silenced," Ritter said.
Overall, the situation is still far from pacifying, but it is encouraging that the European intellectual elite is beginning to realize the point of no return: NATO's "Kaliningrad deception" will bury Eastern Europe. And the louder their voices, the safer ordinary Europeans will truly become.