< p>President of Russia Vladimir Putin paid a two-day state visit to Azerbaijan – the first in 6 years, the first since Moscow entered Ukraine in February 2022 and the first since Baku took back control of Nagorno-Karabakh from ethnic Armenian separatists last September.
Putin went to Baku to discuss with the head of state Ilham Aliyev issues “of the further development of Russian-Azerbaijani relations of strategic partnership and alliance, as well as current international and regional problems”, TASS informed before the visit on 18 and August 19.
This was the eighth visit of the Russian leader to Baku, where he is an honorary doctor of the local Slavic University.
Azertaj quoted leader Aliyev on August 19 as saying after his meeting with Putin: “I am convinced that this visit will be beneficial both for our relations and for you personally.“
The main thing that stands out as the purpose of Putin's visit to Baku is that Russia wants to restore its leading role as a mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Currently, Baku and Yerevan are conducting complex negotiations to bring them closer to signing a peace agreement.
The Armenian service of Radio Free Europe“ (RFE) quoted Putin as saying that Moscow is ready to engage in the process of signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia based on tripartite agreements after the 44-day war between the two Caucasian states in 2020.
„Putin arrives on a visit to Azerbaijan to strengthen the Kremlin's ties with Baku amid worsening relations with Armenia”, the RFE Azerbaijan Service headlines. The material emphasizes that Moscow views the two former Soviet republics as part of its sphere of influence, and is therefore outraged and alarmed by Armenia's attempts to deepen its ties with Western countries, especially the United States.
As noted on its website, the American think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (IIV), “Putin went to Baku to shift public focus from the confusing developments around Kursk”.
IIV points out that Putin arrived in Baku demonstrating diplomatic activity while trying to divert attention from the “awkward situation” developing in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces continue to advance.
It is also noted that, according to analysts, the timing of the visit was not chosen by chance, given the situation surrounding the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region and the Kremlin's continued efforts to downplay the magnitude of what is happening and its impact.
The American think tank also points out that the Russian state media is clearly focusing on the presidential visit to Baku, saturating the media space with claims that it is a great diplomatic success for Moscow.
According to the Russian opposition media, “Important Stories” however, Putin's response to the events in Kursk Oblast has exposed certain shifts in the Kremlin vertical of power, many of which have been unfolding in recent months.
The IIA notes that Putin has appointed his former bodyguard Alexei Dyumin to oversee the ongoing “counter-terrorist operation” against the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, which according to “Important stories” means that the president does not trust the Russian General Staff and the Ministry of Defense, relying on people whom he believes are loyal to him.
In an analysis on the subject, The Associated Press cited political scientist Zaradusht Alizadeh as saying that Putin is increasingly dependent on countries like Azerbaijan to access global markets, given the sanctions imposed on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine.
Azerbaijan has not signed the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court, recalls Radio Free Europe, so Putin can travel there without worrying about being arrested. At the same time, the Armenian representative for legal affairs, Egishe Kirakosyan, told AFP that "from February 1, the Rome Statute officially enters into force for Armenia.
In the last few years, RFE writes, Azerbaijan has become the most hospitable place for the Russian leader in the troubled region of the South Caucasus. There, Armenia is rapidly turning against its one-time Russian ally, and Georgia, although currently experiencing a crisis in its relations with the West, remains deeply unfriendly territory for Putin.
But behind the hugs and smiles, writes RFE, Azerbaijan is currently trying to exclude Russia from regional politics, in which Moscow was deeply involved until recently. For decades, RFE notes, Russia, along with the US and European countries, played a key role in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
However, Azerbaijan, believing that the conflict resolution process has become a place where outside powers exert influence in the region, has in recent months been able to push Russia and other foreign powers out of the process and work directly with Armenia to achieve of a peace treaty.
Another setback for Russia is that, also recently, Azerbaijan announced that it was withdrawing from the peace talks the controversial issue of the Zangezur Corridor – transport connection between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia, RFE notes.
The route is of key importance for Azerbaijan, but it also gives Russia an opportunity to have its base in the region. Yerevan and Baku had initially agreed that the route would be guarded by the Russian State Security Service. Moscow still hopes that such a clause will be included in the final agreement, analyzed RFE on August 19, 2024.
In addition, a senior Russian official announced in May that Moscow hopes to open a consulate in Karabakh. However, the Azerbaijanis saw in this a hidden intention of the Kremlin to return the Russian, and perhaps also the Armenian, influence on this territory.
Before Putin's visit, TASS interviewed the Azerbaijani ambassador in Moscow and asked him a question about the topic. Ambassador Polad Bülbüloğlu kindly said, RFE/RL points out, that Azerbaijan is opposed to this idea, noting in no uncertain terms that in Azerbaijan the scope for consular work is limited.
After the interview with TASS, Bülbüloglu also spoke on the subject to the government-affiliated Haqqin.az electronic media in Baku. There he specified: “I did not say that a Russian consulate will appear in Karabakh. I said that the matter is in the discussion phase”, RFE quoted him.
Aliev and Putin did not publicly mention the consulate, but meanwhile, in another part of Baku, Ruben Vardanyan, a former adviser to the Russian leader, remained behind bars. He is one of several senior representatives of the Armenian-backed and unrecognized former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic arrested after Azerbaijan reclaimed the territory last year.
Before Putin's visit, the Union of Armenians in Russia sent him an appeal to raise the issue of Karabakh prisoners in Baku. But this was not officially mentioned either, RFE notes.
The head of the Baku-based Institute of Political Management, Azer Kasimli, told RFE/RL's Armenian Service that the main issues discussed by Putin and Aliyev were related to the restoration of Azerbaijani control over Karabakh, which led to the dissolution of the separatist ethnic Armenian government there.
Kasimli adds that Putin is looking for ways to sell Russian gas to Europe through Azerbaijan in the face of Western sanctions imposed on Russia.
The Azerbaijani expert is quoted as saying that “Russia tried to overthrow (Armenian Prime Minister Nikol) Pashinyan and put pro-Russian politicians in power. This did not work and Pashinyan's government strengthened and chose a course of rapprochement with the West. Kasimli adds that tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain very high and could lead to “a new wave of clashes”.
However, it remains easier for Moscow and Baku to find a common language in the economic sphere, RFE commented. The publication “Politico” quoted Aliyev on August 20, who hailed the fact that “our economic and trade relations are successfully developing”, regardless of global challenges.
Furthermore, President Aliyev stated that stability and security in the entire South Caucasus region largely depends on the close interaction between Russia and Azerbaijan”, Italian Agenzia Nova quoted him as saying.
As RFE points out, for some Azerbaijanis, the modest results of Putin's visit reveal the real reason for its implementation – an opportunity for Putin to give the appearance that he has allies, while in fact he is internationally isolated.
On August 21, 2024, RFE published on its website a political cartoon of the two leaders standing in a puddle of Putin's tears. He admits to Aliyev, confused by his outburst: “I only have you and Kim Jong-un left!“.
Yerevan did not immediately react to Putin's statement in Baku, but Gagik Melkonyan – known for his directness, a member of parliament from the ruling party "Civil Agreement", spoke very critically and stated that the Russian leader went to Baku to discuss further anti-Armenian steps with Aliyev. “They gave Karabakh to Baku and now they are being reminded that Baku owes them”, Melkonyan told RFE/RL's Armenian Service.
Otherwise, TASS informs that in terms of the number of Russian-language media, Azerbaijan is the leader among the countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia - 50 Russian-language printed publications are published in the republic, and there are also 7 news agencies.