Bulgaria's admission to the "land" Schengen is probably the most significant event for our country in 2024. Undoubtedly good news, but with mixed signals about who deserves the credit for this undisputed foreign policy success. However, for Bulgarian politicians to beat their chests on this occasion is, to put it mildly, inappropriate. Because the real credit belongs to Bulgarian citizens and Bulgarian business.
Indeed, the decision to admit is political, and the criteria are quite "floating". Bulgaria has been meeting the requirements for at least 10 years, but countries like Austria and the Netherlands did not allow us in - for some of their own reasons, even though we had support at the European level. Ultimately, the "international situation" turned out to be on our side and from January 1, 2025, Bulgaria and Romania will be full members of the Schengen area*.
In practice, however, Bulgaria has been in Schengen for years, and the decision of December 12 only formalizes the reality. De facto, we Bulgarians have joined our country before our politicians formally did so.
Does it sound incredible to you? Let's see what the statistics say.
One of the undeniable advantages of Schengen membership is that passengers and cargo cross the borders between member states faster. Which facilitates trade, tourism, and business in general.
Let's start with trade.
Data from the National Statistical Institute indicate that in the period January-September 2024, Bulgaria's exports to other countries amounted to 63.5 billion leva. Of these, over 40 billion is for the "Schengen" EU countries, plus another 645 million leva for the countries of the European Free Trade Association, members of the Schengen area. That is, almost two-thirds of our exports were to the Schengen area even before the reliefs were implemented!
Outside this group of countries, the largest market for our goods is neighboring Turkey - 4.3 billion leva. We also actively trade with the other neighboring countries Serbia (exports of 1.4 billion leva) and the Republic of North Macedonia (1.2 billion leva). Of course, it is completely logical to trade most intensively with your neighbors.
From the "rest of the world", where we sell about a quarter of our production, our largest trading partners are the USA (1.5 billion leva exports), Great Britain (1.12 billion leva), China (1.1 billion leva), Egypt (1 billion leva), Ukraine (925 million leva), Algeria (719 million leva). (It is curious that we export almost as much to Georgia, with a population of 4 million, as to Russia, with a population of 140 million.)
In general, this is the structure of Bulgarian exports by country and region. And it is like this thanks much more to business than to government. Because governments can influence the volume of production (through stimulating policies), but in a market economy it is much more difficult to "direct" Where to export - this is the entrepreneurs' judgment. And their choice is quite clear.
In terms of travel (tourist, work and visiting), also according to NSI data, in 2023, Bulgarian citizens made a total of 8.1 million trips abroad. Of these, 4.6 million were within the Schengen area, and another 3.1 million - to neighbors outside Schengen (Turkey, Serbia and the Republic of North Macedonia). These numbers do not need additional comment.
The data show that our admission to Schengen is not just a success - it was imperative. And in principle, the rulers could also have included us in MERCOSUR**, but the benefits would be symbolic...
As for the euro, the situation is similar, although not so categorical, simply because the eurozone encompasses fewer countries compared to the Schengen area. And neighboring Romania does not move "in a package" with us to the euro, since there are no political criteria here, only financial ones. And the numbers cannot be subject to "expediency".
Bulgaria's exports to the 20 countries of the eurozone between January and September of this year amounted to 30.5 billion leva, or almost as much as to the rest of the world. Travel within the eurozone in 2023 is 3.7 million, but there are also as many to neighboring countries (excluding Greece, which is in the eurozone), which due to their proximity are attractive for travel - regardless of whether they accept the euro or not. The share of the "rest of the world" is below 10%.
This results in a kind of "voting with your feet" in favor of the euro. The term gained popularity in the summer of 1989, when the "Cold War" had not yet ended and the Berlin Wall was still standing, but Hungary had opened its border with Austria for free passage. At that time, many citizens of the now defunct GDR went "on vacation" to Hungary - to cross into Austria and from there to the FRG, clearly showing in which country they wanted to live.
So it is now. Sociological surveys may show a reluctance to adopt the euro (due to economic fears, as well as the influence of Russian propaganda), but in practice the majority of citizens and businesses have already chosen the euro ("by their deeds you will know them").
Of course, there will be conjunctural obstructions against both Schengen and the eurozone - right now, a number of European countries intend to return border controls, and the moment to adopt the euro may not be the most appropriate from a purely financial point of view. But both Schengen and the euro are long-term projects, and the orientation of the Bulgarian economy indicates that we have a long-term interest in both. The numbers show it.
Bulgarian society has made its choice. It is a separate issue that politicians are about to compromise this choice (for the euro) with the draft budget for 2025. But the need to enter the eurozone remains. At least as long as our economic orientation is like that. And the critics of the euro, instead of instilling fear, would do better to think about how to expand our positions in other markets in order to reduce our dependence on the eurozone. A joker: a step in this direction would have been the non-existent "Volkswagen" factory in our country, which would have exported its production mainly to the Middle East.
*With the accession of Bulgaria and Romania, the Schengen area now includes all EU countries, except Cyprus and Ireland, plus Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
**The largest interstate union in South America.