How should we view the attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, what are the risks to Bulgaria's security and the country's readiness to defend its territorial waters. Should Bulgaria seek opportunities for a peaceful solution instead of being drawn deeper into the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Here is what Angel Slavchev from „Vazrazhdane“ shared with Lili Marinkova in the „FACT“ studio and the „Razgovor“ show.
- Mr. Slavchev, The attacks on merchant ships near Bulgarian territorial waters raise serious concerns. Do you think that an escalation of the conflict is imminent?
- We do not think that such a development is necessarily imminent. But we warned Bulgarian society and politicians that even after the first drone fell in Kardam, the situation could escalate. Bulgaria had the opportunity to take initiatives that would bring the two warring states closer together - Russia and Ukraine - and at least turn the Black Sea into a zone of peace.
- Don't you think that the conflict has already gone too far and such an initiative would be difficult to accept?
- It may not be accepted easily, but the rulers had an obligation to start it. We, ordinary citizens, will bear the consequences of military actions in the Black Sea. The risks to commercial shipping could lead to a reduction in supplies and additional inflationary pressure.
- The Bulgarian authorities invited the Russian ambassador for talks. How do you assess this approach?
- We do not know whether the drones that hit the ships are Russian, Ukrainian or belong to a third party. However, we immediately turn to one side of the conflict. Thus, we risk taking sides again without having sufficient information. Bulgaria must clarify the facts before drawing conclusions.
- According to military experts, Bulgaria does not have sufficient means to monitor and protect the Black Sea coast. Do you share this assessment?
- Bulgaria does not have enough of its own defense systems on the Black Sea coast, nor the necessary capabilities to monitor and counter drones. There is still talk of purchasing such systems. In our opinion, the government should have discussed activating Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty in order to hold consultations with the allies and assess what assistance can be provided.
- What is the point of our membership in NATO if Bulgaria feels threatened and does not have sufficient means of defense?
- This is a legitimate question that every Bulgarian citizen should ask himself. NATO membership must have a real dimension for our security. At the same time, we must ask ourselves why the deliveries of the military equipment purchased from the United States are delayed for so long. Bulgaria must have the capabilities to defend its own territory, airspace and maritime borders.
- Is it possible to conduct a serious investigation into the incidents with the ships and to establish what exactly they were transporting?
- The government owes answers to Bulgarian citizens. There are currently many unknowns and we risk getting into speculation. I saw a simulation that shows how a ship can react differently to a strike depending on its cargo. However, this in itself does not prove what the specific ships were carrying. There needs to be clear and reliable information.
- There have been allegations that one of the ships may have been carrying military equipment. Do you think this is plausible?
- We do not have enough data to confirm such a version. We do not know whether the strikes were carried out by Russia, Ukraine or a third party, nor whether this was a provocation. We should not rule out different hypotheses, but we should not present them as proven facts. The institutions are obliged to clarify the case.
- Is it possible that such incidents are aimed at drawing NATO into the conflict?
- This is one of the possible hypotheses that should be considered, without accepting them as truth in advance. It is important to establish who is behind the attacks and what their goals are. Bulgaria must not allow itself to be drawn deeper into the war.
- Russia and Ukraine are attacking each other's naval forces. What does this mean for Bulgaria?
- The destruction of ships in the Black Sea is not a new phenomenon, but now the incidents are reaching directly to the Bulgarian coast. The main problem is that Bulgaria is not taking enough initiatives to protect its territory and create conditions for peace. As soon as there is an opportunity for talks with the Ukrainian side, the topic of security in the Black Sea must be clearly stated.
- You also questioned the quick completion of the rescue operation after the sinking of one of the ships. What gives rise to these doubts?
- According to public information, the operation was completed in less than 24 hours, which raises questions. It is possible that the services have information that the public does not have access to. We do not know if there are circumstances that explain the decision, so the institutions need to provide answers.
- What should be Bulgaria's position in this situation?
- Bulgaria must defend its national interest, not take sides without sufficient information and seek ways to turn the Black Sea into a zone of peace. The state must ensure the security of its citizens and prevent our country from being further involved in the military conflict.
- On the one hand, Rumen Radev is subjected to harsh criticism from Atlantic circles, and on the other - from “Vazrazhdane“. What would you do if you were in power, given the current situation?
- We would categorically stop the export of weapons to Ukraine, including through third countries. Bulgaria must cease its participation in this process and not contribute to the continuation of the conflict.
- Do you think that Bulgaria continues to export weapons to Ukraine, despite previous assurances that this has been stopped?
- There were similar disputes in the past. You remember that Kornelia Ninova categorically denied certain allegations, but later it became clear that Bulgaria exports weapons, including through private companies and intermediaries. The state can impose an embargo and clearly state that it will not export weapons to Ukraine. In our opinion, we cannot end the war by continuing to supply it with weapons.
- What is your assessment of the actual situation on the front in Ukraine?
- I do not have direct correspondents with whom I can communicate in Ukraine, but according to the information I follow, there is serious demoralization among the population. Video materials are circulating on the Internet that allegedly show the forced mobilization of young people and women. In my opinion, Ukraine is experiencing increasing difficulties in replenishing its army and is losing ground. At the same time, European public communication often presents the situation in a different way. To orient ourselves, we need to monitor various sources, including Russian and Ukrainian information channels, and approach them critically.
- What do you hear about the mood in Russia itself and the readiness of Russian society for the war to continue?
- From Bulgarians with whom I communicate and who live in Russia, I get the impression that part of Russian society also wants the war to end. According to them, there are people who insist that Vladimir Putin act more firmly. These are the impressions that I reach through personal contacts, but I would not present them as a representative survey of public attitudes in Russia.
- A winter is coming, which may turn out to be severe both because of the war and because of energy insecurity. Do you expect serious consequences?
- In my opinion, there are all signs of a severe winter. The situation in the Black Sea is uncertain, and in the Middle East there is not enough reason to expect a quick calm. We should also recall the problems with the gas pipelines to Europe, as well as the termination of Russian natural gas supplies under previous contractual schemes. All this creates additional pressure on the energy markets.
- How do you assess the measures of the Bulgarian government to limit fuel prices?
- The government abolished the excise duty on propane-butane in order to limit the increase in prices. However, when I compare prices before and after this measure, I do not see the effect being sufficient. According to my calculations, the difference in prices is gradually disappearing. This shows that such measures by themselves do not solve the problem, especially when there is broader uncertainty in the energy markets.
- Apart from energy security, what other risks do you expect for Bulgaria in the coming months?
- I expect serious social problems due to the increase in prices. It is possible that after the New Year there will be protests similar to those in the winter of 2013. People are increasingly feeling the rise in food prices and daily expenses. When a family pays its bills and buys only the bare necessities, its budget quickly runs out.
As an example, I can cite my friends in France, who, according to them, spend about 600 euros a month on food for a family of three. In Bulgaria, such a budget would hardly be enough for a family of four even for a week, considering the prices we pay. This is a serious problem for people who do not have high incomes.
- Do you also connect these economic difficulties with the adoption of the euro?
- In our opinion, Bulgaria was not prepared for the adoption of the euro and this process should not have been carried out in this way. “Vazrazhdane“ was among the political forces that categorically opposed its introduction and insisted on a referendum. Other parties that were represented in parliament, in my opinion, did not take a clear enough position. Now citizens must assess the consequences of the decisions made.
- Presidential elections are coming up. Do you think they can change the political situation in Bulgaria?
- In my opinion, these elections provide an opportunity to change the current political model. I do not agree with the predictions that the outcome of the race is already predetermined and that certain candidates will certainly reach a runoff. Much depends on the voters and on whether they will vote according to party preferences, or whether they will carefully assess which candidate actually represents an alternative.
- What do you think are the main political alternatives and what role do you expect “Vazrazhdane“ to have?
- In my opinion, the real choice is between the candidates associated with the current political model and those who oppose it. I believe that “Vazrazhdane“ is an alternative precisely because it challenges the way the country has been governed in recent decades. We do not want a conflict with either Russia or Ukraine. Our position is that Bulgaria should seek a peaceful solution and insist that the Black Sea be a zone of peace.
- Do you expect the voters of GERB and DPS to support a candidate who is not part of the current political model?
- I cannot predict how these people will vote. However, I hope that citizens will not be guided solely by their party affiliation, but will judge the candidates according to their own convictions and reason. In my opinion, it is important to compare the main contenders and choose the one who really offers a different political course.
See more of the conversation in the VIDEO.