Russian authorities are trying to deal with the situation after Ukraine's attack on the dam wall of the Belgorod Reservoir on the Seversky Donets River. It led to a rise in the water level, which created a threat of flooding of several settlements downstream. Less than 15 kilometers south of the dam begins the territory of the Kharkiv region in Ukraine, where Russian troops continue their attempts to capture the city of Volchansk.
A crack, but no risk of complete destruction
Russian military correspondents confirm: due to the explosion of the dam wall, there are risks of slowing down the advance of the Russian army in the direction of Volchansk. However, independent analysts believe that the consequences will be limited. The Belgorod Dam is dozens of times smaller than the Dnieper Dam, so the possible destruction is incomparable to the catastrophic scenarios that accompanied the explosion of the Novaya Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in 2023.
After the attacks on the dam, the governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, assured local residents that the situation was stable, but warned that there was a risk of the dam wall collapsing if a second attack followed. According to local authorities, the water masses flooded 10 plots of land, residents were evacuated. Posts by local people on social networks indicate that the consequences are currently insignificant.
The logistics of the Russian army may be hampered
The commander of the Ukrainian army's unmanned systems forces, Robert "Magyar" Broddy, said that the attack on the dam was carried out by drones. According to him, the damage to the dam will complicate logistics and create an opportunity for the Russian troops to be cut off from the occupied part of the Kharkiv region. According to him, four brigades of the Russian army, which are advancing in the direction of Volchansk, are cut off from supplies and transportation across the overflowed river.
Pro-Russian military blogger Yuri Podoljaka said that the purpose of the strike is to "slow down the advance of the Russian troops in the Volchansk area". "Developing this success, the front line can be broken through. To prevent this, the enemy is striking the dam wall, counting on completely destroying two locks in order to hinder logistics. So far, he has managed to seriously damage one", Podoljaka wrote on his Telegram channel.
So far, it is known about flooded shelters of the Russian military in the village of Grafovka, another Telegram channel reports. But the consequences could complicate the situation of Russian troops in the occupied territories of Ukraine - fighters from at least six divisions are located there, claims a pro-Russian group on the social network "Vkontakte". According to the creators of this group, Russian troops remain in their positions and there is no order for them to withdraw.
However, military expert Yan Matveev believes that the consequences for Russian troops are likely to be "minimal", given the small volume of the Belgorod reservoir - 76 million cubic meters. He compares the reservoir with the Kakhovka reservoir, which had a volume of 18.2 billion cubic meters and dried up after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station in 2023.
Military expediency
European observers and experts also describe the effect of the Ukrainian army's strike as insignificant. Professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck Gerhard Mangot is convinced that Kiev has hardly achieved its main goal with the attack on the dam - to destroy or at least create major problems for the positions of the Russian army near Volchansk. "From a military point of view, the benefit is small," he says.
The psychological effect of such an attack is greater, believes Wolfgang Richter, an expert on international security issues at the German Foundation for Science and Politics. The Ukrainian military has managed to transfer the war to the enemy's territory, he notes. "It is important for the Ukrainians to prove that they are capable of acting. This has more of a political and psychological effect. They want to show the Europeans, and perhaps the Americans: "We can do it. We are capable of acting and it is still worth investing in our defense capabilities," Richter said.
War crime?
According to Wolfgang Richter, the attacks on the dam wall raise serious doubts from the point of view of international humanitarian law. He notes that "the risk of causing significant damage to the civilian population or causing the death of many people in the event of flooding is very high." According to him, the four Geneva Conventions and the two additional protocols prohibit attacks on civilian targets. "And this is, of course, a civilian object, even if it can be used for other purposes," the expert explains.
"Therefore, Ukraine will have to come to terms with the fact that it may be accused of violating international humanitarian law", Richter believes. Professor Gerhard Mangott of the University of Innsbruck also agrees, according to whom the attack on the dam "is a clear violation of so-called international humanitarian law".
Authors: Evgeny Duk, Inna Driben