Why does Russia, against which a record number of restrictions have been imposed in four years, remain, if not an energy superpower, then at least an influential player? Among the reasons are the vulnerability of the West and inflated expectations regarding sanctions, experts such as Stefan Meister of the German Foreign Policy Association believe. As he notes: "Russia is not Iran, it can hardly be sanctioned completely."
The West chose the path of a gradual refusal of oil and gas from Russia; the task of abruptly ending purchases was not set, as this would lead to a sharp jump in prices on world markets, says Meister. "Citizens would feel this. The political price would be too high."
How Russia's share of gas and oil supplies to the EU is falling
Arnold Khachaturov from the publication "Novaya Gazeta Evropa" summarizes that the changes in the volumes of oil and gas supplied by Russia to the EU look like a collapse - from 50 percent for gas and 25 percent for oil in 2022, to 11 and three percent in 2025.
From February 2022 to December 2025, Russia earned 216 billion euros from energy exports to the EU, with a significant part of these funds going to continue the war. The total amount is comparable to the amount of aid provided to Ukraine by Western countries.
Russia has generally adapted to the sanctions, Khachaturov believes, including with the help of the so-called "shadow fleet" , which helps to circumvent restrictions. The main resource flows - 80 percent - flow from Russia to China and India, and from India processed oil products end up in Europe. Turkey operates according to a similar scheme. There can be no question of Russia's complete isolation on the world market, stated the participants in a discussion on the topic organized by the German "Heinrich Böll" Foundation.
In front of the DW, the Russian oppositionist and former Deputy Minister of Energy Vladimir Milov expressed his disagreement with the thesis that Russia has no problems with the budget. "Sanctions are working seriously." Milov also pointed out that the recently introduced US sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" are having an effect, along with other measures introduced earlier. According to Milov, the sanctions pressure acts only as a complex and, among other things, leads to "budget deficit and economic cooling" . He defines the main weakness of Western sanctions as their inconsistency.
Can sanctions stop Russia's war against Ukraine
Arnold Khachaturov believes that expectations for the effect of sanctions were inflated and refers to the fact that there has never been a case in the world where sanctions have led to regime change. Stefan Meister, in turn, says that in fact no one expected this, and that the sanctions were not created to end the war. According to Meister, the task was to increase the cost of the war for Moscow and to limit the resources for purchasing weapons, which was not achieved.
The Russian leadership is ready to pay a "very high price" for the war , is convinced Meister, according to whom Russian society is passive and under the threat of repression is unlikely to protest. The Berlin political scientist is of the opinion that in the long term, the position of the Russian elite, for whom the war will be "too expensive" and the resources will not be enough, may lead to an end to the war.
Author: Roman Goncharenko