The Kremlin is setting conditions for rejecting the Ukrainian and European peace plan. It previously rejected key points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan that greatly favored Russia.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said in a television interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on December 14 that Russia had stated its position “very clearly” and that it would have “strong objections” if Ukraine and Europe made changes to the peace plan. Ushakov also said that Russia would not accept provisions related to various “territorial issues,” including any discussions of a demilitarized “buffer” zone. zone in Donbas.
This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov demanded that Russia receive guarantees and a system for implementing any peace agreements. The Kremlin is not interested in revising the European position on the peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with American negotiators in Berlin, Germany, on December 14 to continue talks on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, US special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, former senior adviser to the US President Jared Kushner and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz discussed the 20-point peace plan.
Witkoff said that the talks would continue on December 15. Ukrainian President Dmitry Lytvyn's communications adviser told Reuters that the talks had lasted more than five hours.
Russian forces are likely to continue to struggle to sustain the Kremlin's desired multi-pronged offensive operations in various operational directions because of the long-term material and human costs of such operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian military officials have stepped up exaggerated claims of progress along the front line in recent weeks, focusing on the Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk-Mirnograd and Gulyaipole directions.
On November 27, Putin hinted that Russian forces would quickly convert Russian advances near Gulyaipole into operational breakthroughs toward Zaporizhia.
Russia will need to generate and concentrate significantly more manpower and materiel in each of these directions to achieve tangible operational effects. Or it will have to selectively prioritize offensive efforts on one front line, which would come at the expense of Kremlin information operations aimed at misrepresenting Russian forces as an imminent collapse of the entire front line.
Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets assessed on December 13 that Russia's Eastern Group of Forces (GTF), operating in the Aleksandrovka and Gulyaipole directions, would have to regroup or receive reinforcements from troops and materiel from other operational directions in order to continue offensive operations towards Gulyaipole.
Russian efforts to launch a battle for the Fortress Belt - Ukraine's main fortified defensive line in the Donetsk region since 2014 - are likely to further deplete Russian resources. Mashovets estimated that offensives against the fortress fortifications of the Fortress Belt, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, would require the Russian military command to fully commit troops and materiel from the Western, Southern and Central Military Districts and that Russian forces would not be able to be "dispersed" in other directions, such as the Velikiy Burlik or Origov directions.
Mashovets added that strategic challenges facing Russia, such as problems with its domestic economy during the war and its defense-industrial base, would also negatively affect Russia's ability to generate sufficient forces and materiel for multi-pronged offensives. Russia will likely have to concentrate even more forces and deprioritize other front sectors to take advantage of the tactical advance around Gulyaipole or try to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast.
The Kremlin is therefore making territorial demands for the unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblasts, as it cannot currently capture these regions militarily.
Ukraine's long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia's oil refining and military capabilities in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 14 that Ukrainian forces had struck the "Afipsky" oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, causing explosions and a large-scale fire.
A geolocated video released on December 14 shows a large-scale fire at the refinery. The Ukrainian military publication "Militarny" reported that the refinery has a processing capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel fuel and other petroleum products.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had struck the "Uryupinsk" oil refinery in the Volgograd region, causing explosions and fires at the facility. Volgograd region governor Andrey Bocharov claimed that debris from drones set the "Uryupinsk" oil refinery on fire.
On December 14, the Russian opposition publication "Astra" reported that Ukrainian forces may have attacked the "Slavneft-YANOS" oil refinery, one of the largest oil refineries in Russia, in the city of Yaroslavl, Yaroslavl Oblast.
"Militarny" reported that local Telegram channels reported explosions near the oil refinery.
The governor of Yaroslavl Oblast, Mikhail Evraev, issued a drone strike warning for unspecified areas of Yaroslavl Oblast on December 13.
Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck the "Dorogobuzhskaya" thermal power plant in Smolensk Oblast, causing power outages in the region.
Ukrainian forces have also struck Russian military and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 14 that Ukrainian forces had struck two Russian PMM ferry bridge vehicles, as well as Kasta-2E2 and 96L6E radar stations in occupied Crimea.