From the gas station to the supermarket - prices are rising, and many consumers are worried about what awaits them. Since the start of the war in Iran, oil prices have reached peak values of almost $ 120 per barrel, and gas prices have temporarily doubled. For consumers, companies and banks, this could bring serious consequences.
Almost everything depends on oil prices
The main question is: is this a short-term price shock or the beginning of a new era of high inflation? The fact is that rising energy prices are particularly quickly reflected in inflation. More expensive oil inevitably leads to higher prices for gasoline and heating oil. At the same time, transportation costs are rising and production costs are rising.
The German Institute for Economics IW has calculated the consequences of the significantly higher oil price. At a price of $100 per barrel, GDP would fall by 0.3% and consumer prices would rise by 0.8%. The reason is that high energy prices make transport, heating and production costs more expensive, which are ultimately reflected in consumer prices.
"Food price tsunami"
And not only that: higher prices for fertilizers, plant protection and land cultivation will inevitably increase food prices, warn experts from German agriculture.
The German Food Industry Manufacturers Association is even warning of a real "food price tsunami", which will burden consumers even more if urgent measures are not taken.
Food prices in Germany are now rising again. This is shown by a survey by the DPA news agency among large food retailers. Here are some examples: a 250-gram package of German own-brand butter now costs an average of 1.19 euros. Aldi Nord and Lidl justified this step with rising purchase prices. There are also foods that cost significantly more than in February 2025, such as chocolate, beef, fruit and fresh vegetables. Chocolate prices rose by more than 13 percent, and beef and veal even rose by more than 14 percent, ARD reports.
If oil prices remain around $80 a barrel for a long time or in the worst case - over $100, this will have a lasting negative impact on inflation, Sonja Marten, chief economist at German bank DZ, told ARD. And Edgar Valk, chief economist at bank “Metzler“ expects “in the next six to ten months, the inflation rate in the eurozone will rise to above 3%, and perhaps even 4%“.
It's not just oil, gas and electricity are also rising in price
Unlike the oil crisis in the 1970s, Europe is now far less dependent on oil as an energy source, but the risks have simply shifted: in many areas of the economy, oil has been replaced by electricity, and electricity prices in Europe are often produced in gas-fired power plants.
Current problems in the production and transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are leading to an increase not only in gas prices, but also in electricity prices. The effect of rising gas and electricity prices will probably be reflected in the statistics with some delay, as suppliers are still adjusting their tariffs.
Pressure also on central banks
Expectations of higher inflation are also a problem for the European Central Bank (ECB). If the price of oil remains permanently high - for example, at $100 per barrel or more - the ECB will be forced to take action. Economist Marten predicts that it will be necessary to take more aggressive action, including raising interest rates, "much earlier than planned."
Author: Angela Göpfert ARD | Axel John ARD