Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine

The Russian army is preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine against the backdrop of the blocking of peace talks, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the discussions in the Kremlin, Focus writes.

According to one of the agency's sources, the war, which has already lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War (World War II), could continue for another year or two if there is no progress in the peace talks.

However, so far, there is no sign of such a move: Vladimir Putin continues to demand the complete surrender of Donbass from Kiev, while Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to make territorial concessions, insisting that such a scenario would lead to the renewal of Russian aggression in the future. The United States informed its allies last week that it still hopes to bring Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table, although the parties' positions remain far apart and the negotiation process is at a standstill, a source told Bloomberg. According to the agency's source, Washington also assures that the easing of sanctions against Russia, which allows Putin to take advantage of the energy crisis around Iran, is temporary.

The new offensive that the Kremlin is preparing is unlikely to lead to significant progress on the front, Bloomberg sources in Moscow admit: the Russian army cannot overcome the "wall of drones" erected by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which destroys up to 90% of attacking aircraft before they reach the front line. At the end of last year, generals from the General Staff of the Russian Federation managed to take control of only 0.8% of the territory of Ukraine, and a year earlier - 0.6%. In some areas, the pace of the Russian offensive was as little as 15 meters per day, a negative record in the more than 100-year history of modern warfare.

Currently, according to Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are gradually pushing Russian forces out of Kupyansk, the capture of which Putin proudly announced at the end of last year. The war in Iran, which led to a rise in oil prices, will improve the state of the Russian budget, which until recently was on the verge of collapse. Economic success will allow the Kremlin to increase the number of new recruits in the army and military spending, warns Nick Reynolds, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London. According to Bloomberg sources, unexpected revenues from oil and gas - up to 3-4 trillion rubles a year - will likely be directed to the military budget.

In order to continue military operations, the Kremlin is preparing society for a new "partial mobilization", experts from the American Institute for War Studies (ISW) wrote in February.

The creation of "information conditions" for the forced recruitment of citizens to the front is emphasized, according to the ISW, by the increased blocking of the Internet, as well as by laws adopted at the end of last year that allow the Ministry of Defense to mobilize a reserve of 2 million people. Although the authorities stated that reservists (those who have served in the army and signed a contract to remain in the reserve) would be sent only for "protection" at critical facilities, the law provides for the possibility of their use outside Russia, ISW points out.

In addition, since November, military commissions in the Russian Federation have been conducting recruitment throughout the year, and in December Putin signed a law on the gathering of reservists, the institute's experts recall.