This year, the traditional parade in Moscow on May 9 will be held in a severely curtailed format. No military equipment will pass through Red Square, nor will graduates of military schools march. Why was this decision made?
This year, the traditional parade in Moscow on May 9 will be held in a limited format. No military equipment will pass through Red Square, nor will graduates of the Suvorov military schools, the Nakhimov schools and the cadet corps march, the Russian Defense Ministry announced. This decision was justified by the "current operational situation". Later, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that the equipment would not be used during the celebrations due to the "terrorist threat" from Ukraine.
Mass celebrations in the Russian regions are completely canceled. There will be no parades in Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Chuvashia and Kaluga regions, and festive salutes are canceled in Voronezh, Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions.
According to the publication "Fontanka", no military equipment is planned to pass through St. Petersburg: "There will not even be a restored T-34 tank, which in recent years has usually been the first to appear". On Palace Square in the city, instead of three stands, only one will be erected - with a capacity for about 300 people. According to "Fontanka" "veterans of the special military operation" - this is what the Russian authorities call the war against Ukraine.
Why there will actually be no military equipment at the parade
Austrian military historian Markus Reisner explains this by the increased capabilities of Ukraine. The recent attacks by the Ukrainian army on Perm have shown that it is capable of hitting practically any target in the western part of Russia. "Therefore, despite the dense network of air defense around Moscow, the risk of a massive strike is constantly increasing," the expert commented to DW.
In addition, according to Reisner, the equipment and technology of the Russian armed forces, as well as the logistics for their transportation, are needed at the front, and therefore there will be no military equipment at the parade. "Not because of the "terrorist threat" that Peskov is talking about, but because war absorbs all resources", the expert explains. Reisner specifies that the Russian side has a sufficient amount of equipment, but its transportation from the front to the parade and back requires disproportionate costs.
Military expert Yan Matveev says in turn that the Russian armed forces have enough military equipment, if you don't count air defense. "Currently, tanks, armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery are used at the front to a limited extent, and it is definitely possible to allocate equipment for the parade," the expert claims and suggests that the Kremlin is most likely really afraid of turning them into a target for Ukrainian forces if they are included in the parade. "Another reason is the reluctance to draw too much attention to military equipment against the backdrop of the failure in the war - so as not to anger the already dissatisfied society," adds Matveev.
The expert recalls that in recent attacks, Ukrainian drones have failed to penetrate the air defenses of the Russian capital. But it is impossible to say for sure what will happen if the strikes are significantly more massive. "The risk of a drone breaking through the defensive barrier always exists. All other measures, such as cutting off their internet connection, will not hinder them in any way," the expert believes.
The significance of the parade for the Russian authorities
Historian Alexei Uvarov from the Ruhr University in Germany recalls that in post-Soviet Russia, the tradition of military parades on Victory Day largely follows the Soviet tradition of parades on May 1 and November 7. In the 1990s, this was an attempt to appropriate the theme of the Great Patriotic War, the historian also says, explaining: "In this way, the authorities hoped to attract the electorate of the communists to their side and consolidate different layers of society around them."
Great attention was also paid to the presence of foreign guests. For example, in 2005 and 2010, heads of state and government from Europe attended the parades in Moscow. In 2005, even then-US President George W. Bush arrived. Over time, the importance of international guests at the annual event has diminished, and they now play a more secondary role - the desire to demonstrate normality has come to the fore, explains Uvarov.
During the pandemic, it became clear how important the parade is for the Russian authorities - in 2020 it was decided to hold the event despite Covid. "For the Kremlin then, it was important to show that the situation was under control. The same applies now - the parade must take place simply because it must take place. This is an element of maintaining a sense of normality", the expert points out.
"Another symptom"
Russian political scientist Ivan Fomin does not believe that holding the parade in a severely curtailed format will seriously affect Vladimir Putin's popularity or trust in the government as a whole: "Rather, this may become another symptom that the state is not fully coping with the current challenges and maintaining the usual way of life in wartime conditions". But there are such signals even without the parade, Fomin recalls, citing internet outages and drone attacks, for example.
According to the expert, one of the effects could be a loss of interest in the parade. Those Russians who have previously watched it for the demonstration of military equipment will refuse to watch it now, and probably in the future, Fomin believes.