Conspiracy against Putin? A European secret service reports a possible conspiracy against the Russian president. What is known?
The Kremlin has drastically strengthened security measures around President Vladimir Putin, and the reason for this lies in growing fears of a coup. This is clear from a report by a European intelligence service, cited by the Russian investigative portal "Important Stories", as well as by CNN and the Financial Times.
The alleged plans for a coup in Russia divide observers into two camps. On the one hand, they believe that such a scenario is possible, and the threat to Putin is real. This is proven by the successful operations of the Ukrainian secret services in and outside Russia. On the other hand, they see the leaked information as part of a campaign to destabilize the Russian elite. However, most of the experts interviewed agree that Putin is indeed very concerned about his own security. And that tensions among the Russian elite are growing, including due to economic problems and pressure from the security structures on technocrats.
What is Shoigu's role
The report by the European intelligence service identifies the former Russian Minister of Defense and current Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, as a "potential destabilizing factor". Although he no longer has his former influence, the former minister could pose a potential risk to Putin's power system, says Roman Anin, founder of the independent Russian publication "Important Stories". According to him, Russia is experiencing growing tension between the security forces, and clan struggles have already begun, while Putin's role as a mediator has weakened.
"For many years, Shoigu was the leader of an extremely influential clan. As Minister of Defense and Head of the Ministry of Civil Defense, he managed to unite a large number of people under his command and involve them in corruption networks. This is essentially a kind of mafia omerta," Anin explained in an interview with DW.
A long-standing friendship connects Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu - the two have spent their holidays together, and photos released by the Kremlin show them picking mushrooms or fishing in the taiga. For 12 years, Shoigu headed the Ministry of Civil Defense, and in 2012, Putin appointed him Minister of Defense. In 2024, he was dismissed and replaced by Andrei Belousov. According to observers, Shoigu has fallen out of favor due to the failures in the war against Ukraine. In view of the arrests of his former deputies, Shoigu now probably fears that the same fate could befall him, notes Anin.
What is Putin afraid of
According to the information in the report of the European intelligence service, Putin fears a possible assassination attempt organized by representatives of the Russian political elite, in which drones could be used. In April, an anonymous Russian channel on Telegram reported that the Kremlin fears dangers related to internal events. The message spoke of possible drone attacks organized directly in Moscow, and not outside Russia. Therefore, there were even plans to completely cancel the traditional military parade on Red Square on the occasion of May 9. Since the services have reported a number of dangers associated with holding such an event, Putin was on the verge of canceling it.
Since the Russian president is very worried about his safety, the Kremlin has decided to hold the parade in a severely curtailed format, political scientist Ekaterina Shulman writes on her Telegram channel. "When security is the top priority, the safest thing is not to appear anywhere", she also writes, drawing attention to the fact that Putin severely limits his public appearances.
The reason for Putin's concern is also the successful assassination attempts against Russian generals, which are attributed to the Ukrainian secret services, political scientist Abbas Galyamov believes. "That's why security is more important to Putin than image," he says, noting that internal conflicts within the Russian elite and Russian services are escalating, with some clans acting more and more independently - without the Kremlin's previous mediating role. However, according to him, the elites are currently waiting and avoiding open confrontation in order to adapt to the changed conditions. As for Shoigu's role, the expert considers him a weakened figure, deprived of the necessary resources and support. Ekaterina Shulman also notes that the Financial Times and CNN publications do not speak of a "conspiracy led by Shoigu".
Deliberate disinformation?
British political scientist and Russia expert Mark Galeotti defines reports of an alleged conspiracy against Putin as "deliberate disinformation".
In a commentary for the British weekly magazine The Spectator, Galeotti spoke of a "sudden wave of publications" that "suspiciously resemble a psychological operation". The aim is "to incite paranoia among the Russian elite", Galeotti believes. According to him, Sergei Shoigu lacks the authority and trust within the leadership to carry out a coup.
Why don't the elite overthrow Putin?
The ruling elites are not a homogeneous group with common interests, explains in turn the political scientist Alexandra Prokopenko, a former employee of the Russian Central Bank. This is precisely the reason why there have not yet been any significant coup attempts. The only exception is the rebellion of the founder of the mercenary group "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023.
Prokopenko describes Putin's power system as pyramids built around individual patrons and related to both the allocation of resources and access to decision-making processes. In this model, the participants lack a common coordination center, and therefore the condition for collective action is not present. While the representatives of this system receive more from Putin than they could have received without him, they have no incentive for open conflict, Prokopenko believes. At the same time, the expert does not rule out that the situation could change if the resources within the system decrease. The war and sanctions have already reduced this "share" and it is distributed in favor of the military and related industries. And this intensifies competition between influential groups and undermines the stability of existing alliances. At the same time, according to Prokopenko, various groups within the system are trying to direct Putin's attention to their own interests.
The expert describes this not as a fight to change course, but rather as a battle for access to resources - and for a place at the center of decision-making. According to Prokopenko, the ambiguity of the rules is convenient for Putin - because it divides the elites, forces them to prove loyalty and reminds them that property rights in Russia depend not on the law, but on the political will of the Kremlin.