The Kremlin's internal campaign to recruit contract personnel continues to show signs of strain under the pressure of high battlefield losses. There are likely internal debates within the Kremlin about whether Russia should conduct another round of forced calls to the reserve. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 27 that Ukraine was receiving internal Russian information about preparations for additional mobilization in Russia to compensate for its high losses in Ukraine and increase the size of the Russian contingent in Ukraine by "tens of thousands" of personnel.
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
Zelensky noted that Ukraine has also received intelligence about a further increase in Russian "mobilization efforts," although it is unclear whether Zelensky was referring to the current Russian voluntary recruitment and crypto-mobilization efforts or the efforts to register and process Russian reservists. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to remain committed to the ongoing contract recruitment campaign for now. On May 25, Putin signed a decree granting debt relief of up to 10 million rubles to conscripts and spouses of conscripts who signed a contract for at least one year with the Russian Ministry of Defense after May 1.
The lack of significant combat successes, rising military casualties, and the casualty rate are contributing to the internal Russian perception that the war in Ukraine is not going well for Russia, a perception that is already hindering Russia's recruitment of contract personnel.
Any forced mobilization campaign would likely be significantly less popular among the Russian population now that Russia's military efforts are generating as much tension and discontent as they might have been in mid-to-late 2025, when Russian forces were making significant tactical advances in multiple sectors, using a campaign design that Ukraine has since managed to counter.
The effect of a potential forced call-up of Russian reserves on The battlefield remains unclear, given Russia's growing manpower needs and the fact that Ukrainian drone strikes are hindering Russian troop movements to the front lines. Russia must not only replace its battlefield casualties, but also recruit troops for Russian drone forces and protect its operational and deep rear areas from Ukrainian drone strikes.
The Russian government is reportedly considering imposing a temporary restriction on the export of Russian diesel and jet fuel after several months of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Russian news agency Interfax and the Russian website RBC reported on May 26, citing oil industry sources and sources familiar with the situation, that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting on May 26 to discuss a possible temporary ban on the export of jet fuel and diesel.
The sources said the ban could last one or two months, but the Russian Ministry of Economic Development must approve the initiative before setting a deadline for the ban. Several sources told Interfax that the Russian government had advised Russian oil companies to limit exports of petroleum products after the May 26 meeting.
One source told Interfax that the Russian government would only ban the export of jet fuel, not diesel fuel, as there is a sufficient supply of diesel on the market. Novak said after the May 26 meeting that the Russian government was prioritizing domestic fuel markets.