Π Oil prices are falling, diplomats are negotiating in Switzerland, and Trump is talking about opening the Gulf as if it were a fait accompli. The Middle East conflict should be coming to an end, but the dancers remain at anchor.
Jotaro Tamypa - Executive Director of Mitsui O.S.K. Linas, is categorical in front of the Financial Times: for many companies, the transition could take weeks.
"There needs to be more than just an agreement between the relevant parties, but for this to materialize in real terms in the Ormyshki Stream, so that the shipping industry can feel comfortable moving forward", he emphasizes expert.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has not wavered in its position and warns all members that the passage remains dangerous, with unexploded mines posing the main threat. The Croatian Shipowners' Association, for its part, asked who will manage the traffic in the strait and what is the extent of the mining of the shipping corridor.
Maersk has not changed its routes yet, and Wallenius Wilhelmsen declined to comment on whether there are any operational changes.
Four obstacles before normalization
Mining with the main problem. Iran is believed to have breached the standard shipping corridor, forcing ships to sail close to the Iranian or Omani coasts. Who will mine the central zone and how passing ships will be protected remains unclear. The work itself could take weeks.
Security is the second hurdle. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), at least 14 sailors have died since the start of the conflict, and 46 attacks have damaged ships. Even if the fire is completely extinguished, some of the crew may refuse to return to the Persian Gulf.
The management of the passage is the third unknown. The Iranian Fars news agency reported that the navigation services will be determined by Iran and Oman. The shipowners categorically do not want to be obliged to communicate with the Iranian regime, which is under ongoing US sanctions. WIMSO insists that the issue be resolved by the OOH or a neutral state.
So with the fourth uncertainty. Iran signals that the free period will expire in 60 days. Trump says there will be no fees. The IMO has already stated that there is no legal basis for such fees, and the American side has qualified their payment as an act subject to sanctions. Chevron CEO Mike Worth told Bloomberg Television that the company would not pay.
Production also down
Even as safety concerns are addressed, oil and gas production in the region has ground to a halt. According to Rustad Energy, restoring the infrastructure will cost about $42 billion, and tankers diverted to alternative routes will need about two months to reposition.
Analysts expect 85-90% of the lost volumes to be restored by the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026, and the full restoration - only in January 2027.
Currently, 155 oil and chemical tankers are at anchor in the Persian Gulf - data from Krler as of June 15. Kalshi gives a 51% chance of traffic returning to normal by August 1 and a 68% chance by September 1.
Once the ships get the "green light", clearing the blockages at both ends of the waterway will take eight to ten days, estimates Anup Singh of Oil Brokerage.