Od Arne Westad is a Norwegian historian, professor at Yale University, a specialist in Cold War history, as well as the history of China and East Asia. Here are his predictions about the duration of Russia's war against Ukraine, Putin's relations with Trump and the risk of World War III.
Od Arne Westad: "The Russian aggression against Ukraine began with the assumption that it would be a quick war. But Russia got bogged down in it not only because of the heroism of the Ukrainian people, but also because of Ukraine's ability to create a network of alliances that allowed it to repel Russia," the professor told DW. According to him, it is on this basis that a stalemate situation arises, which could last for a very long time, unless some political and diplomatic breakthrough is achieved that would force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table and start a real dialogue for a ceasefire. “However, we have not reached that point yet“, Professor Westad points out.
"Russia is exhausting its dwindling resources"
DV: How long can the stalemate continue?
O. A. Westad: I think this war could last for years. At the moment, Russia has very few chances of a breakthrough on the battlefield. Ukraine's capabilities are also limited, but this depends on the extent to which Russia actually exhausts its dwindling resources, throwing people and equipment into the “meat grinder“ in Eastern Ukraine. What I think is most important at the moment – and in this I completely agree with Ukrainian President Zelensky - is to achieve a ceasefire, and then, I hope, gradually create a more stable situation, including changes in Russia that will allow the restoration of the Ukrainian state.
DV: What will Russia do from now on or what could it do? Will President Putin announce mobilization or will he agree to negotiations?
O. A. Vestad: My feeling, based on data from internal sources in Russia, is that Putin will probably try to do both. I think he will try to mobilize as much as possible of the scarce resources that Russia has now - both human and material - to achieve some kind of breakthrough in Ukraine.
And when it becomes clear that he cannot succeed, he will face difficulties - both in terms of mobilization and its consequences on the battlefield. Then there is a possibility that he will pretend to be ready to negotiate. But it will take some time to reach a real ceasefire. And that is precisely the tragedy for both Russia and Ukraine.
"It is important to hold talks with Putin"
DV: Can European leaders take a place in negotiations with Russia? Does it make sense for Europe to hold direct talks with Putin at the moment?
O. A. Westad: Yes, it is important to hold such talks, without either side trying to impose hard conditions. I think it would be good if Europe could agree on which of its leaders should meet with Putin to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
Putin and his pseudo-allies, first and foremost China, should realize Europe's determination to continue supporting Ukraine until a ceasefire is concluded, and even after a peace agreement is signed. Normalization of relations between Europe and Russia will not be possible until a peace agreement is concluded between Ukraine and Russia that goes far beyond what was agreed upon in the ceasefire. It is very important for Russia to understand this, and the only way to achieve this is through negotiations with Putin.
Why do you think Russia's chances of winning the war are limited?
O. A. Westad: There are three main reasons. The most important of these is undoubtedly what is happening on the battlefield. In order to achieve a breakthrough, Russia would have to sharply increase its military efforts. But I don't think it has that opportunity right now with the types of weapons it's using. Second, I don't think European, and American support - I mean the supply of weapons to Ukraine - will disappear completely. And third, the idea that some supposed collapse of democratic processes in Europe or the US can save Russia from itself in this war is just a pipe dream.
"Trump doesn't like being manipulated"
DW: Is Washington's attitude towards Russia's war changing?
O. A. Westad: Trump is now much less interested in making a deal with Putin - he is irritated by Putin. He thought that by returning to the presidency, he would be able to reach an agreement within the framework of which Putin would join him in the pursuit of a quick end to this war. But that did not happen. The style of his statements and the formulations that Putin uses create in Trump and in some people in the American president's team the impression that Putin does not take Trump and the United States seriously - that he is simply playing with them.
And if there is one thing that Trump does not like, it is the feeling that he is being manipulated. This has led to changes in his attitude towards Putin - I notice it in Washington. The change is that the positive attitude towards Ukraine has strengthened and Americans have begun to realize more acutely the importance of the war. And the dislike for Putin and for what Russia represents has clearly increased.
DV: And do you think it is possible to reach a revolution in Putin's Russia?
O. A. Westad: If the scale of the war or wars that Russia is entering increases even more, the future of the current Russian state may indeed be under threat. I think that Russia is already in a situation where it is becoming obvious that the war in Ukraine is leading the state, not quickly, but quite surely, to a point where it will find itself at a disadvantage in relation to the rest of the world, and not just in relation to Europe.
The end of the Russian state in its current form?
I think that if a series of even larger conflicts breaks out, this will probably mean the end of the Russian state in the form in which we see it today. I think there are many among Putin's inner circle who realize this. Any further conflict could easily lead to what happened to the Russian Empire, when it got into a bigger war than it could win.
DV: How worried are you that Russia's war against Ukraine could escalate into a world war between the great powers?
O. A. Westad: I don't think that the war in Ukraine in itself carries the seeds of a new war between the great powers. But I do think that if it comes to a certain global crisis – a security crisis that we cannot currently foresee, the war in Ukraine, along with the ongoing US war against Iran and tensions in other areas of the Middle East and East Asia, could lead to precisely the kind of conflict that has led to wars between great powers in the past, such as in 1914.
Author: Roman Goncharenko