The speech of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in the presence of Vladimir Putin has become one of the most high-profile diplomatic events in recent months.
Tokayev told Russian President Putin that the fighting in Ukraine must stop, and called for a freeze on the conflict. This is a rare case when the Kazakh leader makes such a comment personally to the Russian president.
Statements by Russia's allies on the war in Ukraine always carry special weight. Until now, even the Kremlin's closest partners have avoided public criticism, limiting themselves to general words about the need for peace and diplomacy. However, this has changed, writes the Ukrainian publication OBOZ.ua.
Tokayev did not simply call for an end to hostilities and a return to negotiations. Much more important were his words that the reasons for this war are “incomprehensible to many, including us“. This was the first time that one of Moscow's closest partners so openly distanced himself from the Kremlin's main explanation for the war. For the Russian authorities, this was a much more painful signal than the call for negotiations itself.
Even more questions arose after Tokayev's own statement. He said that before the meeting he had received many inquiries from Europe and the United States asking him to pass on to Putin proposals for ending the war. This immediately gave rise to various versions: whether the Kazakh president is an intermediary for the West, whether he is expressing the position of China, or whether he is conveying the sentiments of a part of the Russian elite, which is increasingly feeling the consequences of the prolonged war.
Ukrainian analyst Ilya Kotov commented that Tokayev's call to stop the war was not accidental. Tokayev is a professional diplomat, a former Minister of Foreign Affairs, a person who perfectly understands the weight of every word spoken. Therefore, this statement was definitely not spontaneous. In essence, Tokayev did two things - he conveyed a certain message and at the same time outlined the official position of Kazakhstan. Before that, he took a consistent position regarding the war. Back in 2022, he stated that Kazakhstan would not participate in aggression against Ukraine within the framework of the CSTO and would not help Russia circumvent sanctions.
His words are not improvisation, but a state position, Kotov believes. Another question is whose message this is. China or Turkey are often mentioned. In fact, Tokayev seems to have expressed the position of several key players at once. China is increasingly convinced that Putin is not fulfilling the strategic tasks he has set for himself. Secondary sanctions, possible new US tariffs and economic losses make the war less and less profitable for Beijing. It is no coincidence that Istanbul was also mentioned again. This can be perceived as a signal from Turkey about its readiness to return to the negotiating table. The US position is no less important. Kazakhstan is closely integrated into US energy projects, so Washington is also interested in ending the war.
It is significant that the very next day Putin again stated that Russia did not initiate the aggression. This was a response not only to Tokayev, but also to the international public. The world has long ceased to perceive the Kremlin's historical myths as an explanation for the war. That is why there are no full-fledged negotiations between the US and Russia. Tokayev actually said the main thing – Russia has no historical or moral right to attack neighboring countries. And for Kazakhstan, it is a matter of its own security. If Ukraine becomes a target today, tomorrow any other country in the region could become one.
Kotov also commented on the prospects for a temporary ceasefire. For Ukraine, it is important that the freeze in the war does not turn into just a pause, during which Russia will restore its military potential, some sanctions may be eased, and international trade with Moscow will gradually resume. After a certain time, the Kremlin may return to aggression. As long as Vladimir Putin is in power, his desire to destroy Ukrainian statehood will not disappear. It is not just about territories, but about the very existence of Ukraine as an independent state.
Who will guarantee peace if a truce or peace is eventually reached? Beijing is not ready to openly become a party to the conflict. It has traditionally positioned itself as a state that stands above the conflict. Therefore, speaking of great powers, Tokayev primarily meant the United States (in terms of guarantees). Also Turkey, which is interested in the security of the Black Sea region and could potentially be involved in ensuring security, at least in the Black Sea region. The European Union was obviously also mentioned, especially given the discussions about the possible deployment of a European contingent.