The British government has unofficially admitted that the European military initiative, known as „Coalition of the Willing“, is facing a real risk of irreversible collapse.
The main reason for the impending collapse is the upcoming political change of power in France and the threat of the French state withdrawing from common security commitments, reports The Telegraph in its current geopolitical analysis,
French Chess and the Shadow of Marine Le Pen
According to official sources cited in the material on The Telegraph, the main concerns in London are focused on the end of Emmanuel Macron's presidential term next year. Since he is not eligible for a third consecutive term, the favorite for the Elysee Palace is currently the leader of the far-right Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen has already categorically promised:
- To remove France from NATO military command.
- To end the economic sanctions imposed against Russia.
- To force Ukraine to sign a peace agreement on Moscow's terms.
Her main rival from the far left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is going even further with promises to leave the Western alliance completely. A senior Western diplomat told the publication that a victory for either radical leader would create a "huge problem" for NATO and end the joint pact between London and Paris. British officials are already urgently developing plans for how France's possible withdrawal would affect bilateral relations and the sharing of secret intelligence information.
The Coalition – from leadership ambitions to „slow death“
The „Coalition of the Willing“ was initially created by Britain and France as an alternative mechanism to guarantee security in Europe and support Kiev in the context of the weakening US commitment under the Donald Trump administration. Just weeks ago, in July 2026, the member states held a meeting in Paris, where they agreed on a joint anti-ballistic defense program.
However, internal divisions quickly eroded the alliance:
- Germany: Chancellor blocks EU efforts to restrict movement of Russian diplomats in Schengen and refuses to close “Russian House“ in Berlin, used as a cover for spy networks.
- Poland: Prime Minister Donald Tusk, despite his strong army, categorically refused to participate in any missions due to the country's proximity to the Russian border.
- Italy: Giorgia Meloni also ruled out sending military forces, calling such moves ineffective and too risky.
The lack of unified leadership in Europe has analysts warning of dire geopolitical consequences. If the West fails to deliver on its promises of long-term security, future Ukrainian governments could permanently turn away from unreliable European partners.