The drone that crashed near Kardam yesterday morning probably deviated from the initially set route due to signal jamming, a navigation problem or a technical malfunction. This assumption was expressed to BNT by Petar Cholakov, co-chairman of the "Bulgarian Defense Industry" Association.
According to him, such unmanned aircraft can be difficult to detect by standard radar systems.
"In my opinion, there are three main scenarios that we can consider. Naturally, it is too early to dwell on one of them, but it is most logical to have deviations from the initially set route," he believes.
Cholakov pointed out that during the current combat operations there is intensive radio-electronic warfare against the drones.
According to him, jamming the signal or replacing the navigation systems can lead to loss of location and deviation of the unmanned aircraft.
"Because you know that during these combat operations there is currently a very intense environment for radio warfare, radio-electronic warfare, precisely against the drones. And that is why signal jamming and replacement of navigation systems very often occur. And so an unmanned aircraft can first lose its navigation, its location and from there go in a certain direction," the expert commented.
According to Cholakov, the type of aircraft also matters for the possibility of its detection.
"First, these are drones that can fly relatively low, which makes them more difficult to detect than standard radar systems. Their radar footprint is small and large radar systems are designed primarily for larger aircraft," he explained.
Cholakov described as a cause for concern the fact that such a drone could pass through two NATO countries without being detected, but pointed out that this is not necessarily unusual.
According to Cholakov, in such cases it is important to establish exactly what the drone was and for what purpose.
"There are basically two types of such drones. One is military drones, which are used for surveillance for certain information that has intelligence value. The second type of drones are the so-called armed drones. These can be large and smaller drones, on which certain explosive devices are placed," the expert explained.
He emphasized that armed drones can be used both for sabotage and for attack. "I can't say for sure what type this drone was, but such drones are always a prerequisite for danger and we should hardly go in the direction that this is an attack that has a certain focus. It needs to be analyzed," Cholakov added.
According to Cholakov, the most likely version remains that of a diverted drone. The development of unmanned systems and their increasingly widespread use in military operations raise the question of how prepared Bulgaria is to respond to such threats, he also commented.