At the end of last week, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a new trilateral agreement in Mecca, officially agreeing that any armed attack against one of the three countries would be considered an attack against them all – an action that drastically changed the balance of power in the Middle East and the wider region and made the world media talk about the “NATO of Sunni Muslims“, BTA reported.
However, what are the challenges facing the newly formed pact, and which countries may soon join it?
“NATO of Sunni Muslims“
In its review on the topic, “Al Jazeera“ notes that the Mecca Pact builds on an agreement reached about a year ago between Saudi Arabia – one of the world's leading oil exporters and a leading geopolitical power in the Middle East, and Pakistan – the only Muslim country in the world with nuclear weapons. With the accession of Turkey – the country with the second largest army in NATO and one of the leading powers in the development of modern defense equipment, however, the power and influence of this pact is growing enormously.
In addition, the Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan axis changes the balance of power in the Middle East and the wider region significantly, mainly due to the fact that all three countries are key allies of the United States, which automatically puts them in an “anti-Iranian position“ in relation to the current situation and the continued military actions of the American army against Iran. Another unifying factor for the agreement is the critical positions of all three countries regarding Israel and its actions against the Palestinians.
Along with these points of contact, the three countries are united by a common confession mainly of Sunni Islam – another important point that automatically puts them against the dominant Shiite world, Iran, and gives reason for analysts around the world to call their agreement “NATO of Sunni Muslims“.
Challenges to the Mecca Pact
Against the backdrop of the serious request of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, analysts quoted by “The Times“ emphasize that beyond its apparent power, the Mecca Pact raises a number of questions, related primarily to the identity of its likely opponents, the exact parameters of the agreements concluded, and the possible reaction of the three countries if the interests of only one of them are affected.
Although all three countries have common concerns about Iran and criticize Israel's actions in Gaza and the wider region, the main threats to each of them differ significantly, “The Times“ notes in an analysis on the subject. While Pakistan continues to view India as a major national security concern, Turkey continues its long-standing disputes with Greece and Cyprus, while also trying to significantly strengthen its role in Syria. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's concerns are more focused on Iran and the Houthi group it supports in Yemen. It is this discrepancy that is why many analysts believe that the pact could rather "send a message" than provide firm guarantees in the event of situations that do not affect all parties to it.
After the signing of the Pact, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said, quoted by “Al Jazeera”, that the three countries have yet to specify through consultations what degree, form and format of support they would request in the event of an attack. This means in practice that the details of the activation of the clause for mutual defense between the three countries have not yet been specified – a factor that raises further doubts about a possible common response to an attack on one of the three countries, at least at this stage.
Taking into account these challenges, analysts Asli Aydintasbas and Omer Ozkizilcak noted, quoted by the “Times“, that the Mecca Pact is “an ambitious project that reflects the three countries' perceived need to create a regional security infrastructure that is independent of the United States“ and stressed that this agreement has “enormous potential to promote mutual defense supplies and arms trade between its participants“.
Which countries could soon become part of the agreement?
So far, the only country whose potential membership has been raised as an issue is Egypt - a country that currently maintains solid relations with all three Pact countries and which, according to analysts, could significantly strengthen the influence of the agreement if it joins it, notes “Al Jazeera“, recalling another recent statement by Fidan, in which he defined Egypt as a “natural partner“ and stated that he expects Cairo to officially join the Mecca Pact once “technical issues“ are ironed out.
According to analyst Karim Elgendi, however, Egypt's accession can become a fact “only if the conditions protect its aid relations with Washington, do not undermine existing alliances and peace treaties, and preserve its freedom to decide when and where to fight“. At the same time, the British media “Middle East Eye“ reports that, amid Turkey's enthusiasm and Hakan Fidan's upcoming visit to Cairo, diplomatic sources from Saudi Arabia have stated that Riyadh has opposed Egypt's possible accession to the Mecca Pact.
According to Elgendi, it is currently more likely that not Egypt, but Qatar and Kuwait will join the Pact, as "both countries maintain close relations with all three parties to the agreement and are in serious need of guarantees against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf". In his analysis on the subject, Elgendi notes that Syria, Azerbaijan and Jordan could also join the pact “relatively quickly“.
Analyst Karim Elgendi, however, is skeptical about the agreement becoming a broader bloc, stressing that for now the Mecca Pact “looks more like a coalition of the willing that will grow on a case-by-case basis, shaped by each individual capital“s own risk analysis“.