Washington’s push for a quick deal with Moscow is based on the assumption that Ukraine is on the brink of defeat, but the situation on the frontline does not support this view, The Times analyzes.
Russian forces are continuing offensives in some areas and have made local advances, but the front remains largely blocked. According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have thwarted a Russian plan to encircle and capture the remaining part of Donetsk region under their control. The institute also points out that Moscow continues to focus attacks in the Gulyaipole region in order to reach the approaches to Zaporizhia.
This calls into question the logic that Kiev should be forced to accept unfavorable terms because its military collapse is inevitable. The Associated Press describes the fighting as largely stalled, despite continued Russian attacks and slow changes along the line of contact.
Washington steps up pressure for a deal
On October 21, US President Donald Trump stepped up public pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach an agreement with Russia. This came after talks between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Zelensky in Oslo and his subsequent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg.
“I don't think Ukraine will ever officially accept this and say that this is the new border“, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was quoted as saying by the Associated Press, regarding the possibility of turning the current front line into an internationally recognized border. The statement underscored the difference between a possible temporary ceasefire and a final settlement of the territorial dispute.
Zelensky said Kiev was ready to freeze hostilities along the current front line, but only if it received reliable security guarantees from the United States and Europe. Russia has not committed to accepting such an option and continues to insist on conditions that go beyond a simple ceasefire.
Negotiations without an agreed formula
Moscow has said it is ready to resume trilateral talks with the United States and Ukraine in November. However, no specific date has been announced yet, and both sides remain at loggerheads over territory, security guarantees and the future status of the occupied areas.
According to an analysis by The Times, the pressure on Kiev risks turning the military assessment into a political argument. Data from the front shows heavy fighting and serious problems for the Ukrainian army, but no evidence of imminent defeat that would automatically require the acceptance of Russian conditions.
Sources: apnews.com, bbc.co.uk, euronews.com