Israeli elections ended without a clear winner after exit polls put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition camp almost evenly matched. Various television projections gave between 50 and 52 seats for the right-wing bloc and between 49 and 52 for the opposition - far below the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The final distribution will depend on the counting of all ballots.
According to the projections of Kan 11 and Kan 13, the two main blocs will receive 51 seats each. Kan 12 gave a minimal lead to Netanyahu's bloc - 52 against 49 seats for the opposition. Likud remains the largest single party with about 27 seats, while Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to win about 21. In a partial count cited by the Associated Press, Likud has 23.36% of the vote, and Yashar has 15.74%.
The vote was marked by high turnout. The Central Election Commission reported a 77.7% turnout - the highest level for that hour since 1999. These were the first parliamentary elections in the country since the attack by “Hamas“ on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza and the region.
What Netanyahu and Eisenkot said
Netanyahu declared Likud the largest party and called for a “strong Jewish right-wing national government“. He warned that Israel should not rely on "anti-Zionist Arab parties," rejecting the idea of a coalition dependent on the Arab vote.
Eizenkot also declared a political victory to his supporters in Tel Aviv. According to him, the result showed a "complete lack of confidence" in Netanyahu. He said that the future government should defend Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, introduce military and national service for all, and make dismantling "Hamas" among its main goals. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use the country's security for political purposes while the current government functions until a new cabinet is formed.
The Arab parties, which according to exit polls could win between 18 and 19 seats, are emerging as possible arbiters. Eisenkot has signaled that he could work with them under certain conditions, while Netanyahu has ruled out a government based on their support. That leaves open several difficult scenarios - a coalition of opposition parties with outside support, a minority government, a broad coalition or a prolonged political deadlock.
What's next
The Israeli Central Election Commission is due to complete the count and deliver the official results to President Yitzhak Herzog. After consulting with representatives of the elected parties, he will assign a mandate to the MK he believes has the best chance of forming a government. This does not have to be the leader of the largest party.
The first mandate holder will have 28 days to negotiate, with the deadline being extended by another 14 days. If the attempt fails, the president can nominate another candidate, who gets another 28 days. The lawmakers then have 21 days to propose a candidate with the support of at least 61 members of parliament. If this procedure also fails to produce a government, the Knesset is dissolved and new elections are scheduled within 90 days. Until a solution is found, Netanyahu will likely remain at the head of a caretaker cabinet.
Sources: apnews.com, axios.com, in.marketscreener.com