The Times: Putin is preparing Russia for a long war

The reshuffle in the government of the Russian Federation has shown that President Vladimir Putin plans to change the country, turning it into a permanently mobilized a country that is waging war - with profound consequences for the rest of the world, writes Mark Galeotti in an article for the British newspaper The Times, quoted by FOCUS.

According to him, the main step in this direction is the removal of Sergei Shoigu, the long-time Minister of Defense, and his replacement by Andrei Belousov, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia.

"The new man, an economist by education, is no more a soldier than his predecessor, but an organizer and planner who is appointed to prepare the ministry – and the country – for a long war“, Galeotti is confident.

He recalled that in his first speech before the Federation Council, Belousov announced that he had two priorities. The first is the complete integration of the defense and civilian economy, which in effect means reorienting the national economy to the needs of war. The second is to make the department truly open to innovation, which means more than just buying more drones, electronic warfare systems, and the like.

"While maintaining pressure on long-established targets in eastern Ukraine, such as the city of Chasov Yar, Russia has also launched a new operation north, towards Kharkiv, that has demonstrated a level of sophistication not seen up to this point in the war. The forces are not large enough to capture Kharkiv, and their purpose is unclear: the intention could be to bring the city within artillery range, create a buffer zone against Ukrainian attacks across the border, or threaten Sumy in the west, Galeotti wrote.< br />
According to the expert, Kyiv is faced with an unenviable choice. He has few reserves left, so to fortify this new front he must withdraw troops while the Russians innovate - now that it has become so dangerous for either side to bring APCs to the front line, Russian troops are using motorcycles and buggies to to provide additional mobility on the battlefield.

"Attacks are increasingly being led by the so-called turtle tanks. They may look clumsy as they plod along under unsightly barn-like metal superstructures, but along with sophisticated obstacle systems and mine-clearing rollers, they help protect vehicles and their crews from drones, missiles and mines. which are the best response of Ukrainians against such attacks”, notes the author.

According to him, some of these initiatives are proof that Russians are "learning to learn”, abandoning rigid adherence to doctrine and "closing the book on creative Ukrainians”.

Galeotti believes all of this is happening despite, not because of, Moscow's top leadership — the Defense Ministry reshuffle announced Tuesday is an attempt to fill that gap.

"One of the first priorities is likely to be tackling rampant corruption in the ministry. The latest estimate by Russia's chief military prosecutor is that up to 40 percent of all procurement funds are stolen - for example, its troops in Ukraine received cheap Chinese walkie-talkies rather than the secure radios they were promised, it noted. in the material.

Belousov quickly fired three deputy ministers from Shoigu's team. There were other arrests, including that of former Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, who was detained Monday on corruption charges. However, "not all the dead wood has been swept away”.

"Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov turned out to be a bad wartime leader: unimaginative, inflexible, wasteful of soldiers and suspicious of comrades... Traditionally, the defense minister chooses his senior soldier, but for now Putin seems to want Gerasimov to stay , after announcing that he does not envisage changes in the general staff”, the journalist recalls.

The author emphasizes that the lesson of the personnel changes is that Putin foresees a long war of attrition, which he says will depend on streamlining what he sees as Russia's three key strengths: its military-industrial complex, its population and her will to win.

"In many ways, the Soviet system, from the planned, militarized economy to one-party politics, is making a comeback. Even according to official statements, security spending has more than doubled to 6.7 percent of GDP (the real figure is likely higher). Putin outlined a six-year plan for the nation and the public and private economies are merging again. New First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov is a close associate or client of Sergei Chemezov, a KGB veteran and Putin friend who heads the defense conglomerate Rostec. Even fake opposition parties are increasingly left on the sidelines”, the article says.

The author notes that creating a state that is constantly at war has many political advantages - it exercises greater state control over the economy, which also means more opportunities for theft for Putin's clients and cronies, justifies greater suppression of critical voices and is an alibi for all unfulfilled promises about the economy, infrastructure and social security.

"This is not going to end in Ukraine, this conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the next few years, but in any case, Putin has made it clear that he sees this as essentially a proxy war with the West. .. There is no reliable evidence that he has any desire to start a direct conflict with NATO, but he considers himself a man already at war – economic, political, cultural and social – with the West“, Galeotti is confident.

According to him, Putin is fully aware that by any traditional indicator the West is much stronger - the total GDP of NATO is more than 20 times greater than that of Russia.

"However, the Russians are also skilled geopolitical partisans who move the battlefield to where they are stronger and we are weaker... This is Putin's new empire: a militarized authoritarian Russia that seeks to lead global political, diplomatic and economic war with the West, even trying to suppress the resistance in Ukraine”, the expert sums up.