In recent weeks and months, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has significantly worsened relations with the southern part of the peninsula, plans for peace as a long-term goal were frozen, and roads to South Korea were destroyed. State propaganda is reminiscent of Russian and Chinese: the US was to blame for Pyongyang's increasingly belligerent rhetoric, it was about protection from the "imperialist enemy".
However, the exact opposite is true: since the beginning of the Russian offensive war against Ukraine, Kim Jong-un has begun to turn Russia and China against each other. His goal is to improve both North Korea's positions on the peninsula and the country's international relations. Which should be worrying for both Beijing and Moscow.
Currently, Kim Jong-un seems to be leaning more towards developing a partnership with Russia, as evidenced by his readiness to send North Korean soldiers to the front against Ukraine. In response, Seoul summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded that the Pyongyang units leave Russia. However, Moscow is not expected to comply. South Korea must accept that not only China and North Korea, but also Putin's Russia has an interest in the conflict, which could harm the free, democratic and prosperous country.
China is in a losing position
The People's Republic of China is in a losing position in the current situation along the axis of dictatorships, stretching from Moscow, through Beijing, to Pyongyang and Tehran. Dictator Xi Jinping is betting everything on this dangerous alliance, created with his participation. He hopes that by weakening the common enemy, the free democratic world, he will gain advantages without suffering any damage. But his plan will not work out with the increasingly unpredictable Kim Jong-un. If North Korea continues to provoke the South and a military escalation occurs, China will have to take a stand and will not be able to continue to remain neutral.
Kim's intentions are difficult to predict. His dictatorship should actually be pleased with the achieved ability to use long-range missiles that can reach any target in the United States. This provides him with a certain protection from American attacks and strengthens the dominance of his clique. Nothing scares Kim more than the danger of regime change. This is also the main reason for his connection with Xi and Putin. He is using the heated situation on the Korean Peninsula to rally his ranks behind him.
The goal is to change the balance of global power
Due to the changed geopolitical situation, the South Korean government is considering whether to deploy nuclear warheads in parts of the country to be prepared if the North Korean nuclear program succeeds with the help of Russia and China. South Korean nuclear warheads should in turn intimidate Pyongyang and deter its belligerent intentions.
In the current escalation, the topic is only at first glance about the blown-up roads - in fact, it is about the possibility of a shift in global power structures, from which Pyongyang wants to gain. Kim Jong-un is playing a dangerous game that could escalate at any moment if the dictator's calculations do not work out. Beijing has aligned its interests closely with those of North Korea, assuming it will maintain its military and economic superiority. But now China is watching Russia meddle in its own backyard. The "boundless" friendship between Putin and Xi is in question.
Author: Alexander Görlach
He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council on Ethics in International Affairs and a research fellow at the Internet Institute at Oxford University. He has lived in Taiwan and Hong Kong