Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic gave an interview to the German publication Handelsblatt.
In the person of US President Joe Biden, Europe had a reliable partner. Donald Trump will take office on January 20. You know him and recently spoke to him on the phone. Will it become more difficult?
Many things will change. For Donald Trump, strategic relations with China will be very important - we Europeans should be aware of this. That is why it is good that Germany has expanded its contacts with China, which should now also happen at the European level. Because Trump will take care of Europe. The EU is therefore well advised to start talks very quickly.
Rationality is required, with a long-term strategy, not piecemeal policy. We need vision and long-term, decisive action in Europe to secure our place in the world of tomorrow.
Can you clarify what you mean by that?
For example, every day we hear that Ukraine must win. A more rational approach is needed to stop the bloodshed. Europe as a whole is losing its weight in the world. Our share of the world economy is decreasing year after year. Asia, on the other hand, is gaining ground, as is Africa. Do we want to stand by and watch our share of the global economy halve to below ten percent in ten to fifteen years?
Let us assume that this development is real. How do you think the catastrophe can be prevented?
We need to realize what is happening around us and face a changed world. The faster this happens, the faster we will recover. Take Germany. The country has maintained the competitiveness of its economy with cheap gas from Russia. The change will not happen so quickly now, energy in Germany is expensive. But your country urgently needs cheap energy!
We know this description of the problem. But what would be the solution?
I dare to predict: in a year at the latest, "Nord Stream" will be owned by an American investor and the gas will flow from Russia to Europe via the gas pipeline. Mark my words. One year until Nord Stream is operational!
Without a truce, nothing will happen in this direction. We know Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. What are the chances of peace?
There was an idea of a ceasefire between December 23 and January 8, 2025, which is the days of Christian and Orthodox Christmas. After fifteen days of peace, it would be very difficult to resume hostilities. But I am not sure that both sides are ready for this. Only when negotiations begin between the main global players will there be peace. This bloodshed must end as soon as possible.
Will China use its influence to silence the guns?
I spoke openly about this issue with President Xi more than half a year ago, on May 8. He is very calm, modest and fearless in character. Xi literally told me: “Alexander, nothing will move until January. After that, negotiations can take place.“ He was referring to the beginning of the new US presidency. I hope that from then on we will talk about peace.
Do you think China would be willing to mediate seriously in the war? So far, the country has been firmly on Russia's side, and experts believe that Beijing is largely responsible for maintaining the Russian military machine.
After my conversations with Xi, I assume that China is mediating. That would also be a good sign, since China can exert more influence over Moscow. I'm just worried that something bad could happen before there is a ceasefire.
What are you trying to imply?
I mean further escalation, in which Russia responds to attacks from Western missile systems. Anyone who believes that Putin would not use these powerful weapons is mistaken... We are talking about nuclear weapons... But again, I believe that with Donald Trump we will get closer to peace. This would be very important for Europe and Germany, which is not interested in being drawn into a war. Neither are we in Serbia.
The war was started by Russia, and Moscow has no interest in ending it...
Now someone else has to negotiate peace.
Is the peace deal announced by future US President Donald Trump a possibility?
Trump will not support Ukraine as financially as the current administration. He has also promised to bring peace and is likely to do everything he can to fulfill this promise, as long as the war does not escalate beforehand.
Will there be clear winners and losers after the war?
The biggest losers in this war are, of course, the Ukrainians. But the Russians and we Europeans are also losing. The US and China are winning. Washington is strengthening its position in the energy market, and China already has a clear idea of how any Western country reacts to aggression.
Last week you traveled to Germany to talk to Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the strategic partnership for raw materials agreed with the EU. Now German officials are to help develop a lithium deposit to counter public concerns about environmental pollution. At the same time, you promised to improve the dialogue with the affected citizens. Is the project progressing?
Yes, especially now with the support of the German side. This partnership is of great strategic importance for both countries. Germany will be the only country that we will directly supply with lithium. In this way, Serbia is positioning itself as a pillar of the German automotive industry, which needs material for the production of batteries for electric vehicles. Europe is currently dependent on imports from China, Australia and South America. We want to put an end to this.