Cutting US military aid to Ukraine will not lead to lasting peace in Ukraine, nor will it force Russian President Vladimir Putin to reconsider his plans for victory.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin's plan for victory assumes that the Russian military can maintain a creeping, gradual advance on the battlefield for longer than Ukrainian forces can defend themselves, and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine.
ISW continues to assess that Western military aid, especially that which only the US can provide quickly and on a large scale, remains of crucial for Ukrainian forces to achieve decisive battlefield successes and force Putin to reconsider his theory of victory.
Battlefield successes that change Putin’s calculus will force Russia to engage in constructive negotiations to secure a peaceful resolution to the war.
Reducing U.S. aid to Ukraine risks giving Russia greater battlefield advantages and is likely to embolden Putin to continue his war and reinforce his belief that Russia can conquer Ukraine.
This is inconsistent with U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated goal of securing lasting peace in Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to attack Ukraine using rhetoric that presents an anachronistic reading of Ukrainian history. Moscow denies the existence of an independent Ukrainian language and culture while discrediting the Ukrainian government.
Russian officials have also sought to isolate Kiev from its Western partners.
The Kremlin has advocated escalating the war by launching strikes in Ukraine as part of a broader effort to intimidate the West in order to weaken its support for Volodymyr Zelensky.
Russian officials continue to promote anti-NATO and anti-Western rhetoric, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to prepare Russian society for a potential future war against NATO.
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian military and defense-industrial targets in the Russian rear.
On June 11, Ukraine and Russia exchanged the bodies of soldiers killed in combat in accordance with agreements reached earlier during talks in Istanbul.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.