While the world's eyes are focused on the Middle East, Moscow is escalating its aggressive war in Ukraine. Kiev is under pressure on the front line. Three scenarios for the outcome of the war are now possible - but one is significantly more likely than the other two, writes WELT.
Author Christoph Schilz writes that the first scenario is for the West to act decisively with maximum support for Kiev. In this case, Western countries will ignore Putin's constant threats to use tactical nuclear weapons and will begin to massively supply Ukraine with modern weapons so that the country can effectively defend itself. This will put a lot of pressure on Russian troops on Ukrainian territory.
At the same time, the West will sharply tighten economic sanctions against Russia, almost completely cutting it off from modern technology, international financial transactions, and large revenues from energy sales. Without the use of nuclear weapons - which is highly unlikely - Russia will most likely be forced to cease hostilities. However, this scenario is unlikely. The West is not ready to supply significantly more long-range weapons, nor to sacrifice its own economy for the sake of effective sanctions.
The second scenario is associated with the withdrawal of the United States. The Americans will largely withdraw from the conflict, both militarily and politically, and will transfer responsibility for supporting Ukraine - with the exception of intelligence - to the Europeans. Trump believes that such a withdrawal is justified: Washington wants to focus on the Indo-Pacific region and no longer be the “world policeman“.
Without Washington's full support, Ukraine is doomed in the long term: Europe will be able to compensate for the American withdrawal only for a short time. As a result, Russia will gain control over a much larger part of Ukrainian territory - more than 20%, conquered so far - and will deprive Ukraine of access to the sea. The second scenario is much more realistic than the first - the probability is about 35%.
However, there is a more likely scenario. In the third scenario, the fighting will drag on, Ukraine will not receive sufficient support from the West and will have to be solely on the defensive. Russia will gradually begin to seize more and more territory and this year may take over the second largest Ukrainian city - Kharkiv. This could become a turning point that would prompt the West to demand that Kiev urgently begin negotiations. Ukraine's negotiating position would be extremely weak, the country would lose too much territory, and Western countries would be tired of the ongoing war.
Ukraine would be forced to make significant concessions, the conflict would be frozen on the front line. A large demilitarized zone could be created, and there would be no peace treaty. This scenario is the most realistic, with a probability of about 65%. For Ukraine, this would be a disastrous option.