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ISW: Moscow sets conditions for peace that deprive Ukraine of sovereignty

Kremlin insists on control over language and religious institutions

Aug 18, 2025 07:16 295

ISW: Moscow sets conditions for peace that deprive Ukraine of sovereignty  - 1

Russia continues to deny Ukraine's sovereignty and claim the right to dictate its domestic policy. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned about this, News.bg reports.

On August 17, the New York Times, Reuters and BBC, citing anonymous European officials, reported that two days earlier Vladimir Putin had asked Donald Trump for guarantees to restore the Russian language as official in parts or even all of Ukraine, as well as an end to the “persecution” of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church - Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP).

The UOC-MP is not an independent institution, but a subordinate branch of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), which is a key tool in the Kremlin's hybrid war. Through it, Moscow spreads propaganda narratives and nationalist ideology in order to preserve and expand its influence in the post-Soviet space. The ROC even actively defends the concept that Ukraine should not exist as a separate state.

Putin's demands regarding the Russian language and the activities of the UOC-MP undermine Ukraine's right to determine its own laws and internal order as a sovereign state. They are reminiscent of the terms of the 2015 Minsk agreements, which required constitutional changes and granting broad autonomy to Donbas - in effect allowing Moscow to directly influence decisions in Kiev.

The Russian president insists that any future peace agreement must address the Kremlin's perceived "root causes" of the war. However, this makes achieving a quick peace extremely difficult, as Russian claims extend far beyond Ukraine and affect relations with NATO.

Putin’s proposal for a Russian law prohibiting future invasions is not credible, as Moscow has already twice violated international commitments not to attack neighboring countries. Moreover, Putin himself has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to change Russian legislation to suit his immediate interests.

The question of security guarantees for Ukraine, which Putin may have negotiated, remains unclear. It is possible that the Kremlin is trying to revive its demands from April 2022, which would effectively render any real guarantees meaningless.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced in the northern part of Sumy region and in the Toretsk region. Russian units also made advances near Pokrovsk, but without achieving a serious breakthrough.