Angel Naydenov to FACT: Odessa is of key importance for the Ukrainian economy, so the strikes there are not accidental

The next round of international meetings dedicated to the war in Ukraine has once again raised the question of whether there is a real chance for a diplomatic breakthrough or whether the conflict is entering an even deeper phase of exhaustion. Against this background, the escalation around Odessa, disputes over territories and the topic of security guarantees outline a complex and contradictory negotiation process. About the prospects for peace, the role of Europe and the position of the USA… Angel Naydenov, former Minister of Defense and MP from the Bulgarian Socialist Party, speaks to FACT.

- Mr. Naydenov, another meeting was held in Switzerland regarding the war in Ukraine. Do you expect any breakthrough to be achieved diplomatically in the near future?
- There was positivism in the talk both now and in the previous round of negotiations. There was again talk of an exchange of prisoners of war. However, practically there are no results in terms of ending the war. Of course, people are pinning their hopes on the negotiations and, accordingly, on reaching a peace agreement or at least a temporary ceasefire, but practically nothing follows from these negotiations. So I continue to be skeptical about the results.
At the Geneva negotiations, it was stated that the main focus of attention would be on territorial issues - or rather, sections of the territory not yet occupied by the Russian army in these parts of the Donetsk region and, accordingly, their transfer to Russia. Somehow, the words of the Russian representatives, who insist on the withdrawal of Ukraine from the four regions that Russia is already a subject of the Russian Federation and are inscribed in the Russian Constitution, as well as the recognition of Crimea by the international community. The question is in brackets.

- This is one of the big goals that Russia has set for itself and it is clearly moving in this direction...
- I will also return to the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, because the issue of security guarantees was clearly raised there. I mention both topics because they are key from the point of view of reaching some kind of agreement between the two negotiating parties. There is no agreement on both points so far. I can go into detail regarding security guarantees, but there too the statements from the Russian side were categorically in disagreement - both regarding the agreement between Ukraine and the US, and regarding a possible multilateral agreement between Ukraine, Europe and the US. All this shows serious differences.

- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Europe deserves a place at the negotiating table. Does Europe's position carry weight?
- I would not underestimate either the positions or the proposals that Europe is making. Because, in practice, in the formation of this so-called 20-point plan that Ukraine presented to the US, the main part of the proposals are European proposals. Yes, in these trilateral negotiations, let's call them that, bilateral with the mediation of the US, Europe is not present, but anyway they are part of this package of documents that the Ukrainian side is stepping on in the negotiations. It is true that Europe is not present at the negotiating table, but it seems to me that all the statements that the American side is making, and with the expectation that Europe will play a greater role, in fact, there is an expectation towards Europe as well.

- In recent days, it has been noticeable that Russia is intensifying its attacks on Odessa. How do you view this move?
- Odessa is of key importance for the Ukrainian economy, so the attacks there are not accidental. This is the main point of export of Ukrainian goods - we are talking about millions of tons of cargo, including over 500 such as bory containers. Odessa is also a starting point for the so-called "grain corridor" - wheat and corn. It is logical for Russia to target its attacks on port infrastructure or engineering infrastructure related to the functioning of the Odessa port.
After the attacks on ships of the Russian shadow fleet in the Black Sea, Russia has threatened to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea.

- Is this the big goal? If this happens, many things will change?
- With these attacks, Russia is clearly trying to disrupt the operation of the port infrastructure and make it difficult for Ukrainian exports. Access for merchant ships to Odessa is associated with enormous risk - there have already been cases of merchant ships being hit in air attacks by the Russian side.

- Do you see a change in US President Trump's position on resolving the conflict?
- No, I don't see any change. Among the options that existed was increasing pressure on Ukraine - something that we also see in the recent statements of the American president. His expectations are mainly focused on concessions from the Ukrainian side. In my opinion, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not allow any kind of truce or cessation of fighting without territorial gains for the Russian Federation.

So despite the optimism and claims of progress in the negotiations, I don't think there will be a real breakthrough.

The other option is increasing pressure on Russia - the European formula for diplomatic activity, economic sanctions and continued military aid to Ukraine. If we talk about military aid, we should note that the US has practically stopped direct supplies of weapons. What is being provided is according to a list of priority requirements of Ukraine, financed by NATO countries, with the US providing the weapons and ammunition.
The third possibility is that at some point President Trump will withdraw from an active role, seeing the lack of results and the impossibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement.