Bulgaria is bringing in a huge dose of inflation due to the lack of sufficient domestic production and dependence on imported products on the market. For some basic goods, imports reach 80%, which makes the country extremely vulnerable to external shocks. This was announced by economist Vladimir Sirkarov to bTV. According to him, structural problems in agriculture and geopolitical turmoil continue to put heavy pressure on prices in our country. According to the latest data from the National Statistical Institute for 2026, although the overall annual inflation remains at 3.6%, food products from the small consumer basket continue to increase in price by about 1% per month, directly hitting the lowest-income households.
The main driver of the price increase on the shelves is the collapse in domestic agriculture. "Unfortunately, we have a structural problem here, because we import a large part of the food products we use - about 50% on average, we can say that we import, with some products reaching 70-80%", said Vladimir Sirkarov.
He emphasized that in this way our country automatically imports inflation and remains dependent on the dynamics of international markets. The economist expects higher inflation this year compared to the previous one, with serious pressure already being felt in the tourism and restaurant sectors. The expert is categorical that the future regular government must urgently take measures to recapitalize agriculture and promote quality Bulgarian production.
Regarding the artificial limitation of price increases, the analyst is categorical that such administrative moves are extremely dangerous for the market. "A direct intervention would rather be very risky, because there is a risk of a shortage of goods", Sirkarov warned.
He explained that mark-ups along the chain from producer to retailer for certain products are unreasonably high and the processes there must be closely monitored. "Ultimately, those who raise prices excessively will be punished. There are alternatives and they must be sought", the economist pointed out, referring to the possibility that consumers themselves can regulate the market through their choices.
Preserving the national currency is not a shield against unfair trade practices, it became clear from the expert's words. Sirkarov noted that the topic of the eurozone in our country is extremely politicized, but the currency itself is not the main inflationary driver. "With the single currency, the players who operate in Bulgaria and who allow themselves to speculate actually contribute to increasing inflation. It is unlikely that with another currency - for example, the leva - they would not have raised prices again," he explained.
The economist noted that geopolitical instability also dictates prices in our country. Although a two-week truce was announced in recent days in the large-scale conflict between the US and Iran, which brought down oil prices, external shocks remain a serious threat to the domestic economy. According to Sirkarov, state aid to businesses should be granted extremely carefully, with the focus remaining on preserving free private initiative.