After warnings of kerosene shortages, thousands of canceled flights and growing tensions in the aviation industry, Sofia Airport CEO Jesus Caballero told the show “120 Minutes“ that Europe will not experience a shortage of aviation fuel despite the crisis in the Middle East.
“The cost of aviation fuel is between about 30-40% of an airline's costs, depending on whether it is a low-cost or traditional airline“, said Caballero. According to him, what is happening in the aviation industry is a challenge, where costs are passed on to the end consumer through ticket prices.
He explained that Asia is in a more vulnerable position due to its dependence on oil from the Persian Gulf, while Europe is better diversified. “Europe has a better diversification of sources, we are in a better position“, Caballero pointed out.
According to him, the European Commission has taken measures to support the aviation industry. “The aviation industry will be supported by the European Commission with many measures. One of them is particularly good because they approve that airlines in Europe will be able to import aviation fuel from the United States starting Friday“, he said.
Caballero stressed that he does not expect a shortage of kerosene in Europe either in summer or winter. "I don't think there will be a shortage of kerosene in Europe in the summer and in the winter. So I think we are very well protected," he said.
According to him, Bulgaria is in an even better position because of the refinery in Burgas. "We have the refinery in Burgas and the oil that comes to the refinery does not come from the Persian Gulf, but from other sources. So we will not have a shortage of fuel, especially here in Sofia," Caballero said.
He acknowledged that ticket prices would increase, but specified that this would not affect tickets already purchased. "If you bought a ticket before the war in Iran, there is no way the price will increase now. If you bought a ticket for the summer in advance, you will fly at the same price,“ he said.
According to him, an increase is possible for new bookings, but airlines are trying to keep the summer season stable. “What I understand from the airlines is that they do not want such an increase because they want to protect the summer season“, Caballero pointed out.
He added that airlines are protected from sharp fluctuations by hedging fuel prices. “Airlines that fly from Sofia are protected from such price jumps. For the summer, I believe that there will be protection for passengers“, said the airport's executive director.
According to him, the winter season may prove more complicated if the conflict continues for a long time, but aviation remains a resilient industry. “This is not the first time such a shock has happened. In 2007, the price of a barrel jumped to around $140-150. After that, we had decades of very cheap tickets... and there will be cheap tickets again," he recalled.
Caballero also commented on publications about flight cuts due to the fuel crisis. According to him, long-haul flights to Asia via the Middle East are mainly affected. "These 2 million seats affected are mainly on long-haul flights, mainly Qatar Airways," he said.
He explained that a large part of the traffic between the West and Asia passes through Dubai and Qatar. "We saw airspace closures in February, so that's why so many flights have been suspended," Caballero said.
According to him, flights to Europe and the United States remain relatively safe. "If you fly to Europe or the United States in the summer, there is no such danger," he said.
Caballero pointed out that the recovery of traffic in the Middle East is not yet complete. "Qatar has not resumed operations. Emirates has resumed up to 80% of its flights," he said.
The CEO of Sofia Airport also commented on the impact on Bulgaria. According to him, about 10% of passengers travel to the Middle East in the winter, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Israel. "Due to the closure of the airspace, we lost about 100,000 passengers as a potential," he said.
Nevertheless, Caballero emphasized Bulgaria's competitive advantages. "We have very good air traffic control prices. We have some of the lowest and most competitive tariffs and fees, and as an airport we maintain competitive conditions“, he said.
According to him, Sofia Airport is reporting serious growth. “In Europe there is 2-3% growth, and we have 7% growth because we offer competitive advantages and conditions“, said Caballero.
He also announced details about the Terminal 3 project. “We expect the construction permit in the summer and we will start in September-October with real work“, he said.
The construction is expected to last about three years. “By the end of 2030, we should have an operational Terminal 3 with a capacity of 20 million passengers per year, the largest in the region“, said Caballero.
According to him, the new terminal will give Bulgaria a serious advantage in the region. “Airlines are looking for destinations where they can deploy their fleet. With our airport, with its capacity, efficiency and competitiveness, we will have exceptional advantages“, he said.