The Narrowing Path to Victory - Ukraine and Europe Can Defeat Russia Without U.S. Help

Ukraine's chances of success on the battlefield have diminished with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and Kiev's path to a secure and sovereign future is getting narrower. Yet the grim pessimism that has gripped some Europeans is unwarranted: as long as Ukrainians remain determined to fight Russia, there are strategies available to help them win, even without the U.S. support that Ukraine enjoyed in previous years, writes Foreign Policy.

Trump has repeatedly indicated that military aid to Ukraine will not approach the scale that it was during the Biden administration. But Ukraine already produces some of the most advanced weapons currently in use on the battlefield, and it continues to find innovative solutions in areas where it is at a disadvantage to its much larger enemy. The Ukrainians have already managed to destroy or drive away many of the Russian Navy’s ships in the Black Sea and shocked the world when they carried out drone attacks on several Russian air bases, hitting 41 Russian aircraft, destroying at least 10 of them.

Participants at the Black Sea Security Forum in Odessa last week expressed hope that Trump would finally realize that he had been fooled by Putin and support Ukraine with the tens of billions of dollars it would need to confront Russia.

It is far more likely, however, that Trump will blame Moscow and Kiev for the failure of the peace talks and withdraw from them, ultimately ceasing arms supplies to Kiev. But the Trump administration will not abandon Ukraine completely. American politicians, including most Republicans, realize that America has a lot to lose if Ukraine falls apart.

Sources in Washington who are in contact with the Trump administration say that the US president will not cut off Ukraine’s access to US-provided satellite data that is crucial to Ukrainian military operations.

It is one of the few technologies that Ukraine’s European allies cannot replace if the United States completely withdraws its support for Kiev. However, Washington will not do this, because otherwise it will become a useless observer watching the conflict from the sidelines, and the ongoing cooperation between the intelligence services of the two countries, including on satellite imagery, is associated with very low costs, according to FP.

Slowly but surely, major European countries, such as Britain, France, Germany and Poland, are preparing to take on the role of main allies and supporters of Ukraine in the war against Russia, announcing new military aid to Kiev and even tougher sanctions against Moscow.

With an economy nine times larger than Russia's, the European Union could even surpass the United States in terms of military and financial assistance it provides to Ukraine. Between 2021 and 2024, the total defense budget of EU countries increased from 218 to 326 billion euros and is expected to increase by at least another 100 billion euros by 2027. The European Union continues to develop its defense industry and increase ammunition production. To replace the military and financial assistance provided to Ukraine by the United States, Europe will have to double its spending, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW Kiel).

The funds announced by the EU in support of Ukraine will cover the assistance provided by the United States, which has contributed a total of approximately $67 billion spent on military assistance and over $50 billion in financial assistance since 2022.

Some types of military equipment from the United States will be difficult for European countries to replace, especially air defense systems. Although Europe supplies Ukraine with most of its tanks and howitzers, the United States is the main supplier of missile launchers (Himars and Atacms missile systems), howitzers and long-range air defense systems such as the Patriot. “European missile defense systems can help Ukraine against Russian cruise missiles, but the American Patriot system is the only NATO system that can counter Russian ballistic missile attacks,” states a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Ukraine's new ace up its sleeve is its own defense industry, which has already become one of the most inventive and advanced in Europe, producing about 40% of the weapons needs of the Ukrainian army at a much lower cost and twice as fast as other arms industries.

In addition to its impressive drone production rate, Ukraine has announced that it is producing more howitzers and artillery systems than any other country in Europe.

The Ukrainians know exactly what they need and are constantly modifying the equipment they produce to meet changing battlefield conditions. It is natural for Ukrainians to be increasingly exhausted after more than three grueling years of war and to want to return to normal life, but Putin’s strategy of destroying their morale by bombing Ukrainian cities is not working. It is the Russians who should be worried about the declining morale, as more and more Russian soldiers die on the front lines and the country’s economy suffers under sanctions. If America will no longer support Ukraine in the fight against Russia, then Europe must and can take its place—a process that is already underway.