In early July 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia produces 12 times more ammunition than all NATO countries combined, and the size of the Russian economy is only 5% of that of NATO countries. To find out if this is really so, the publication "Radio Liberty“ together with the investigative group Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) are conducting their own study on the amount of weapons produced by the Russian Federation.
However, the journalists admit that they took the information from open sources, which is why in some cases it is impossible to establish the exact amount of weapons produced.
How much ammunition does Russia produce annually
According to data from the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in 2022 Russia produced 250 thousand 152 mm caliber shells, in 2023 - 1 million, and in 2024 it planned to produce 1.325 million such ammunition.
In practice, the researchers note, it produced just over 1.3 million 152-mm ammunition. Also, the Russian military-industrial complex in 2024 managed to fulfill its task of producing 800 thousand 122-mm shells.
Analysts assume that in 2025 Russian enterprises will be able to produce more explosives by putting new capacities into operation.
Ukrainian military intelligence has its own data. According to the estimates of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russia produced more ammunition: in 2023 - 2 million calibers of 152 mm and 122 mm, and in 2024 it planned to produce 2.7 million. Similar figures were also announced by an unnamed European official. According to his information, 250 thousand ammunition are produced in the Russian Federation per month, or 3 million per year.
In addition, Russia receives ammunition from North Korea. Initially, these were 122 and 152 mm shells, as well as mines and missiles for MLRS, and now Russia also receives 130 mm and 170 mm shells and missiles for Korean MLRS with calibers of 240 and 107 mm.
How much ammunition do NATO countries produce annually
In the spring of last year, an unnamed European official told CNN that NATO countries could produce 1.2 million ammunition per year for sending to Ukraine. Another NATO source reported that year that the Alliance as a whole planned to produce 2 million rounds of main-caliber ammunition in 2024, and to reach a production volume of 3 million 155-mm ammunition in 2025.
This roughly corresponds to the European Commission report. Another million shells were to be produced by the United States in 2025.
In practice, the production capabilities of the European Union and the United States may turn out to be more modest than announced. According to data from an unnamed Slovak defense industry source, released in July 2024, the EU was able to produce 580 thousand rounds of ammunition annually.
In 2024, Rheinmetall signed a contract to supply ammunition to the German army worth $8.5 billion. In addition, 300 thousand ammunition of the main caliber and 150 thousand of other calibers within the framework of the "Ukrainian initiative" planned to produce the Czech company STV Group — 200 thousand 155-mm rounds.
Thus, the total amount of ammunition of the main caliber alone produced in 2025 in Europe, according to the most conservative estimates, could reach 1.2 million.
Ultimately, the authors of the study concluded that the 12-fold superiority of the Russian Federation — 20.5 million shells per year — announced by Rutte is simply impossible to achieve with the available production capacities in Russia.
In June, the Russian armed forces killed the most Ukrainian civilians for the entire full-scale war. In such a situation, the best defense is the attack. Ukraine has managed to shoot down most of the drones and missiles flying towards civilian infrastructure. However, given the number of targets, some hits are inevitable. This was commented by the head of the Main Intelligence Service of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, during a press conference on August 1, ERR reports.
"Since January this year, Russia has carried out about 23,300 drone and missile attacks against Ukraine, which is over 600% compared to the same period in 2023 (about 3,300)“, he said.
The intelligence chief emphasizes that the increase in attacks reflects "Russia's disregard for human life". Residential areas are under attack, which has led to a sharp increase in civilian casualties. Similar to 2023, this indicator has increased by 53%. In June alone, the Russian armed forces killed and wounded over 1,500 Ukrainian civilians, and Kiviselg does not expect any positive changes.
"In the current situation, the best defense against attacking drones is an attack. Therefore, in the near future we may hear that Ukraine has taken measures to destroy drone production plants in Russia, such as "Alabuga", the colonel adds.
The Estonian intelligence chief also assesses the third round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. According to him, this meeting will not affect the course of the war.
"Given the completely different positions of the two sides, it is difficult to predict that anything will change in the near future", Kiviselg emphasizes.
He notes that the only tangible result is the exchange of prisoners, and "the condition of the Ukrainians who returned home demonstrates the Russian Federation's disregard for international law. This disregard is also confirmed by the Russians' attitude towards their own fighters, who are increasingly being tortured or killed by commanders either to impose discipline or simply to blackmail them".
The so-called Russian military "experts" claim that the powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 on the Richter scale in Kamchatka may have been caused by a seismic weapon, writes Newsweek.
On July 30, 2025. seismologists registered a powerful earthquake of magnitude 8.7 in the Pacific Ocean, with an epicenter 120 kilometers from Vilyuchinsk, where the main nuclear submarine base of the Russian Pacific Fleet is located.
Vilyuchinsk is the only port in eastern Russia equipped to support the deployment and maintenance of Borei-class nuclear submarines armed with RSM-56 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to the Kyiv Post.
These submarines constitute a key component of Russia's naval nuclear deterrent forces in the Pacific region.
The facility includes deep-sea landing sites, communications infrastructure, missile processing equipment and specialized support systems necessary for the operation of the Russian strategic submarine fleet.
An alternative base in the eastern part of the country has equivalent capabilities.
Videos circulating on the Russian-language Telegram showed apparent tsunami damage in the nearby port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, leading analysts to suggest that Vilyuchinsk, located closer to the epicenter and deeper in the bay, likely suffered the same or greater impact.
The Pacific Fleet's nuclear capabilities are considered essential to Moscow's strategic position in Asia, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Epicenter reported. Outages at Vilyuchinsk could limit Russia's ability to project its strategic naval power into the region.
This earthquake was the strongest in the region since 1952. Moscow has made no statement and is unlikely to make any about the potential damage to its submarine fleet.
But Russian military "experts" have gathered on Kremlin-linked Telegram channels to support the hypothesis that the powerful earthquake may have been caused by a seismic weapon and that the United States was behind it.
The earthquake reached a magnitude of 8.7 and was followed by tsunami waves, said the governor of the Kamchatka region, Vladimir Solodov, who warned that strong aftershocks could follow.
The first waves, 3-4 meters high, reached the coasts of the Yelizovsky district of Kamchatka and Severo-Kurilsk. Residents were asked to stay on higher ground.
Seismologists predict that aftershocks of magnitude 7.5 will continue for at least a month.
One of the Russian military experts warned that seismic weapons are hypothetical weapons that could trigger earthquakes or tsunamis using directed explosions.
“Such ideas exist, but their implementation and effectiveness remain controversial,” he said. "Some believe that such technologies could be used to shift tectonic plates and create artificial earthquakes.“
Much was written about the hypothetical seismic weapon years ago, with even Russian researchers working on a "prototype", but it was abandoned due to its unpredictable and devastating effects.
Kamchatka and the Russian Far East lie on the Pacific Ring of Fire, a geologically active region known for intense earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
In fact, the Klyuchevsky volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula, in Russia's far east, began erupting after a powerful earthquake, the Russian news agency RIA reported.
According to preliminary information, hot lava flowed along the western slope, explosions were heard and a bright glow was visible above the volcano, RIA reported.
Last week, rescuers advised tourists not to visit the volcano due to increased activity. It last erupted in April 2025.
The 8.8-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Russia that triggered tsunami warnings in the Pacific Ocean occurred on a location known as a “megathrust fault”, where the denser Pacific plate slides beneath the lighter North American plate, scientists said.
The Pacific plate has been moving, making the Kamchatka Peninsula region, off the coast of Russia's Far East, particularly vulnerable to such earthquakes, with larger aftershocks.
Therefore, even supporters of the conspiracy theory about “seismic weapons”, if they exist, admit that the risk of using them in such an area is too great for the entire region.
With an epicenter near the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatki, this is the largest earthquake since the devastating Tohoku event in 2011, which triggered a tsunami that led to severe damage to Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
The Kamchatka region is particularly vulnerable and was previously hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake in November 1952, which destroyed the city of Severo-Kurilsk and caused widespread damage as far away as Hawaii.
Did the powerful earthquake and tsunami affect strategically important military facilities in Kamchatka, which play a key role in Russia's defense in the Pacific?
The Pacific Fleet's bases, including submarines and surface forces located in Vilyutsinsk and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatki, are in the potential risk zone.
Seismic tremors of this magnitude could affect the work of missile attack warning radar stations located in Kamchatka. Although modern military facilities are designed with seismic activity in mind, an earthquake of such magnitude requires a thorough inspection of all critical systems.
There have been no official reports of major damage to military infrastructure so far, but standard procedures in such cases include a full inspection of all facilities.
Military leaders are assessing the condition of the bases and the degree of readiness of the forces to carry out missions in the event of possible aftershocks.
Deep-sea submarines are practically not affected by tsunamis and earthquakes. Waves usually affect only the upper layers of water, up to 20-40 meters, while the operating depth of submarines can reach 400 meters, and the maximum is 450 meters.
Surface ships are warned about tsunamis. In such cases, they hide in bays or enter harbors to avoid danger.