Global oil supply expected to decline

The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly increased its forecast for global oil supplies in 2026 by 0.2 million barrels per day compared to the previous report, as follows from the organization's report. This will bring the global figure down by 3.9 million barrels per day this year to 102.4 million barrels per day. The IEA said that as inventories recover as the situation in the Middle East normalizes, global oil supplies in 2027 will increase by almost 8 million barrels per day, to 110.3 million barrels per day. Global oil supply has fallen to 94.5 million barrels per day, down 600,000 barrels per day from April and 13.6 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. The IEA added that the drop in oil supplies of just under 4 million barrels per day this year reflects the agency's expectations for exports through the Strait of Hormuz to recover starting in the third quarter of this year. However, they note that only a gradual increase in production in the Gulf countries is expected in the near future, as exports through the strait gradually increase and a full recovery is expected to take at least several months.