Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined the main parameters with which Moscow enters the preparation of the budget for the next 3 years - significantly slower economic growth, a deficit of about 2% of GDP and a cautious forecast for the price of oil of about 50 USD per barrel. The statement was made during a meeting on economic issues in the Kremlin, held with representatives of the economic bloc of the government and the presidential administration.
According to Putin, the economic dynamics in Russia are generally developing in line with the authorities' expectations. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow by about 1% in 2026. Rosstat data show that in the second quarter, GDP grew by 1.3% on an annual basis, while for the period January-July the increase was 0.6%.
Thus, the Russian economy continues to grow, but the pace is much more moderate. It is the balance between limiting inflation and maintaining economic activity that remains one of the main issues facing the government and the central bank.
Putin said that inflation is “generally under control“. As of September 14, it had fallen to 6.2%. According to the president, the actions of the government and the Central Bank to limit price pressure are already bearing fruit.
At the same time, consumer demand remains relatively strong. Retail sales grew by 5.4% in the first seven months of the year, and real wages in the first half of the year increased by 6.5%. Unemployment is around 2.3%, which Putin described as a level close to historical lows.
The meeting paid particular attention to the budget. In August, the federal budget ended with a surplus of 606 billion rubles. According to data presented by Putin, revenues outside the oil and gas sector increased by more than 18% in the first eight months of 2026.
However, the energy sector remains a key factor for Russian public finances. Putin indicated that Moscow is observing a rise in oil prices on international markets and expects this to increase oil and gas revenues in the coming months. The additional funds can be used to replenish the National Welfare Fund, which acts as the state's financial reserve.
For the 2027 budget, however, Moscow is not counting on permanently high oil prices. Putin announced that the calculations were made at a price of about $50 per barrel, calling the assumption very conservative. On this basis, preliminary estimates indicate a budget deficit of approximately 2% of GDP.
This approach gives the budget a certain buffer: if average Russian oil prices and export revenues turn out to be higher than planned, the state treasury would receive additional revenues. The downside risk is associated with a possible decline in oil prices, restrictions on Russian energy exports, and the development of international sanctions.
Preparation of the federal budget for 2027-2029 is already in an active phase. According to Putin, his main priorities will remain the fulfillment of the state's social obligations, security, defense, and national development goals.
Economic indicators paint a mixed picture: inflation is slowing, the labor market remains extremely tight, real wages and consumption are growing, but the overall GDP growth rate is hovering around 1%. This puts increasing emphasis on Moscow's ability to maintain budget spending amid weaker economic growth and, at the same time, maintain reserves in the event of a possible deterioration in the external environment.
In addition to the speeches at the economic meeting, on September 17, Putin also signed resolutions affecting the work of foreign companies in Russia. The Russian assets of Auchan and Nestlé were placed under temporary management of the Russian company “L.E.V. Management“, reported “Interfax“, referring to the published presidential decree.
Thus, the Kremlin's latest decisions show two parallel lines in economic policy - a drive for more conservative budget planning amid weaker growth and the continuation of the special regime for part of the assets of Western companies in the country.