Hungary could become the eastern gateway for gas supplies to Europe, but in any case, EU countries will suffer losses of EUR 60-70 billion as a result of Ukraine's decision to stop the transit of Russian fuel from January 1. This opinion was expressed by Oliver Hortai, director of the climate and energy policy department of the Budapest-based Szazadveg research center.
„Europe is not interested in stopping gas supplies from Russia, and such a development is harmful to everyone. From a Hungarian point of view, this move is generally negative, as it leads to higher prices on the energy market. At the same time, this creates new opportunities for it, because purchases from the south will increase and Hungary will be able to open its eastern gas gates to the European Union,“ the expert noted in an interview with the M1 television channel.
He believes that Hungary will suffer from Ukraine's decision to a much lesser extent than other Central European countries, including Slovakia and Austria. Budapest receives most of its gas through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and its branches through Bulgaria and Serbia, the capacity of which could be increased. Taking this into account, Hungary could redirect part of its supplies from Russia to the Austrian gas hub in Baumgarten, considered one of the largest in Europe, so that fuel can flow from there into an integrated pan-European system, in particular to Slovakia and Austria.
“According to data published in the last few days, the European Union as a whole could suffer losses of EUR 60-70 billion per year. Austria and Slovakia will be hit particularly hard in the near future. The need to change the direction of supplies will be a serious problem for both countries“, Hortay said in another interview with radio station Kossuth. He also noted that “in the new situation in Europe, demand for American liquefied natural gas LNG will increase, and Ukraine's annual losses as a result of the cessation of transit from Russia will amount to almost EUR 1 billion. USD.
The Hungarian expert's estimates are consistent with the forecasts of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, according to which the losses of EU countries as a result of Ukraine's decision to stop the transit of Russian gas will amount to EUR 120 billion in 2025-2026. The Slovak government is considering retaliatory steps against Ukraine, up to and including stopping electricity supplies to this country.
Hortai also noted that stopping the transit of Russian gas to Europe benefits only the United States, which will be able to increase its LNG exports. Therefore, he believes, Ukraine's decision and the European Commission's reassuring reaction to this step look as if Kiev and Brussels want to appease US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.
Hungary still receives most of its gas in accordance with long-term contracts with Gazprom through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and its branches through Bulgaria and Serbia. In 2022, 4.8 billion cubic meters of fuel entered the country via this route. According to Hungarian data, in 2023 this figure will increase to 5.6 billion cubic meters, and in 2024 exceeded 7 billion.
The northern supply route through Ukraine has been almost unused recently, although the Hungarian government and MVM CEEnergy, which concluded contracts with Gazprom Export, noted that in the interests of energy security they would like to keep it as an archive. In total, Hungary imports about 9 billion cubic meters of gas per year.