Is it possible that the fifth vote of no confidence will shake the ruling coalition? The director of the “Electoral Attitudes and Forecasts“ department at “Gallup International Balkan”, Prof. Mikhail Konstantinov, commented on the topic in the “Offensive” program on NOVA NEWS. Konstantinov described the situation as “a waste of parliamentary time”.
“In theory, something is possible, but I don't believe it will happen in practice. You can't take the same actions and expect something different to happen – at the moment, all these efforts are fruitless”, said Prof. Konstantinov. According to him, against the backdrop of public discontent in our country and the upcoming entry of our country into the eurozone, the protests and demonstrations that have formed would not lead to more severe tension in the country.
„Our country's entry into the eurozone will not be associated with such formal dangers, at least because for some reasons it can be assumed that Bulgaria is already inside, and has been for quite some time. Given our currency board situation, even if there were a collapse of the euro now, it would still be a problem for us”, he added. According to him, a political strategy of loud and harsh speech would not bring the results desired by the political forces.
„No matter how we count it, there is still more than a year until the next presidential elections. Such a strategy is not successful, mainly because a clear decision has not yet been made in the presidency. But it is also too late to come on stage, so to speak, with a new project, and before these elections”, explained Prof. Konstantinov. In his words, the most likely outcome is the participation of forces from the center and center-right in the next elections.
“About a third of the vote is this – center and center – right, with GERB at its core. There are of course also pro-Russian forces, as well as the so-called “urban right”, but there will probably be no other representatives on the ground”, he also said and added that currently there is a natural alliance between some groups in power, but it is also right for these forces to mobilize their electorate.
“What we are seeing now with GERB and “DPS-Novo Nachola” is a natural alliance and I see no reason for it to be disrupted. However, it is possible that they will enter the elections with their own candidate, and subsequently support the right-wing candidate”, the analyst also pointed out.
“There is also something else – the fight for GERB is currently 1:2 – that is, they are losing the battle for president. You cannot win the battle by telling your voters that they will lose”, Konstantinov also said. In addition, he pointed out that for the vote to be successful, it should not be politicized.
Regarding the political processes in Western Europe, Prof. Mikhail Konstantinov expressed the opinion that countries like France should be careful in their actions – economically and politically.