According to a national representative survey by “Gallup“, conducted between 10 and 28 February 2026, Rumen Radev's formation leads with 29.8% support, followed by the GERB-SDF coalition with 19.6%. The PP-DB coalition takes third place with 11%, immediately behind them is “DPS-New Beginning“ with 10.9%, and the “Vazrazhdane“ party receives 6% support. MECH with 3.3%, BSP with 2.9%, “There is such a people” with 2.8%, “Velicie“ with 2.2% and APS with 1%.
If the elections were on Sunday, slightly more than half of the voters would declare their willingness to vote - 51.1%, while 14.6% are hesitant, and the percentage of non-voters is 34.3%, according to the agency's results.
On Nova News, political scientists Assoc. Prof. Tatyana Burudzhieva and Assoc. Prof. Milen Lyubenov commented on the data and the prospects for the electoral process.
“I would say that these data are a bit sad news for everyone. Sad for us, the citizens, because the declared activity continues to decline. You see, the different agencies over time went out on the streets one after the other and we can literally see every week where the data is going. The structure inside, the arrangements of the parties, are more or less the same in all agencies. This means that we consistently see the change in trends and the decrease in the declaration of those who are ready to go and vote. 51% declarative vote a month before the elections with the campaigns, as the parties are starting to conduct them, is bad news for me“, commented Assoc. Prof. Burudzhieva.
She added: “These 14.6% vacillating will be very difficult to attract, because the campaigns of the parties are not aimed at opening up the periphery. Including the campaign of “Progressive Bulgaria“, which with its name, logo, names on the lists, and what is said and what is not said, fails to raise activity. The first disappointment with the protests and the wishes of the people since December is precisely the possibility of a wave that would lead to the sweeping away of those they do not like and the purification of the political landscape. The second disappointment is that the peak of the protest energy is running out, and the entities that should embody these hopes do not have enough active voters, especially around Radev. The third paradox is that the new political entity is sucking votes from other parties, but this does not guarantee partners for forming a majority government“.
Assoc. Prof. Lyubenov also commented on the conclusions of the study: “These data confirm the general picture that we saw in other sociological surveys. The decrease in declared voting intentions shows that expectations for higher voter turnout are not justified. This is probably also a tactical mistake of the parties, including the new participant Radev, because the elections were as far away as possible in time. If quick elections had been held after the protests, the turnout could have been significantly higher. Now the situation is different: we are entering a normal course of political confrontations, of sharp debate, and several crises are pushing voters away“.
Regarding the possibility of a surprise, Lyubenov specified: “It may rather come from the turnout – the more it increases, the more the order may be confused. The potential for a protest vote is real, but the current parliamentary parties are discredited because of their participation in the political process. This gives new formations the opportunity to attract votes, but also requires an active campaign with clear messages, not by hiding or avoiding questions“.
Assoc. Prof. Burudzhieva added that the differences between the forecasts of sociological agencies and the actual results can reach 4-7%, which shows that even a well-made sample has its limitations.
“There may be greater proximity between the first and the second, which raises the question of the government and coalition conditions. The entry of a sixth or seventh entity also changes the dynamics, because it takes votes from the larger parties. Fewer parties in parliament - easier to form a government“, concluded Assoc. Prof. Burudzhieva.