Where did the support for "Progressive Bulgaria" come from? The demographic breakdowns of "Measure" show that perhaps nearly 200 thousand votes came from GERB. At least about 100 thousand came from people who claim to have voted for the PPDB in the previous elections. The PPDB, in turn, has now increased its result at the expense of other demographic groups. Those who voted last time for "Vazrazhdane" have literally halved this time and nearly 150 thousand of them went to Radev. The picture is similar with the BSP – only there more than half went to Radev.
More than a fifth of the vote for Radev comes from those who did not vote last time or voted with “I do not support anyone“. The rest come from various other forces.
Thus it turns out that Radev has mobilized about 300 thousand Bulgarians alienated from politics and is a clear winner in the group of otherwise non-voters or voters for the first time. The PPDB is clearly in second place there. The formation also takes a clear second place among the youngest (18-30 year olds). The fact is, however, that in this group too, the PB convincingly leads – respectively, with one third of the vote, against one fifth for the PPDB.
Specially for the Bulgarian National Television “Measure“ asked how those who claim to have participated in the protests since the end of last year voted. Here too, Radev is the leader - with over a third of the vote, but close behind him with over 26% of the protest votes are his hosts from the PPDB. Of course, in such issues there is always a high degree of declarativeness.
In general, the electoral profile of the new party is very similar to that of GERB in terms of demographic structure, i.e. close to the average structure of the vote in general. Both parties, of course, are less represented among ethnic groups other than Bulgarians, while at the same time Radev currently has more young voters - which is typical of new players and protest voting.
Again for BNT, “Measure“ reviewed whether voters chose “for“ someone, or rather “against“ someone. About one tenth of the vote for both Radev and the PPDB is precisely protest-oriented.
For Nova TV, “Measure“ reviewed when the decision to vote was made. It turns out that this time as many as 25% made the decision in the last days or even on the day of the vote itself. This makes nearly 800 thousand people and creates conditions for practical unpredictability.