It is difficult to judge whether PP-DB will come second in the elections, but there is no doubt that the inspiration has left the voters of PP-DB and will lead to refusal of participation. This was commented by the political scientist Hristo Panchugov in an interview with BNR.
"The political campaign itself will be extremely important. I'm afraid that at this point some of the clichés, such as opposition, sticking labels, are well-known and don't impress anyone," explained the political scientist.
And he added: "What is missing is an adequate narrative of what is to come – "Yes, we have never been a real coalition" – they talk about GERB-SDS. And PP-DB say that "Peevski is the main enemy". With the former there is a stable majority, and with the others there is none.
He recalled that GERB from being in absolute isolation in just one year turned out to be part of one administration. "The other story - PP-DB is in the role of the victim, "several times it tries to achieve something in Bulgarian politics and fails. It remains to get a new story", comments Panchugov.
Regarding the removal of the chairman Rosen Zhelyazkov, he said that it was expected:
"Conflict was inevitable. The vote was as pointless as the overthrow of Nikola Minchev in a previous parliament. Such an act is a demonstration, not a political request to create some kind of coalition".
Panchugov predicts that there will be surprises in the new parliament with new political players who are on the brink of the 4 percent threshold for entry.
"These are formations that play with the patriotic vote, but with some acceptable Euroscepticism, and not with the militant fascism of the "Revival". These are MECH and Kuzman Iliev's new formation – "Bulgaria can". The question is not even whether they will have support, but whether the low voter turnout will not bring more political subjects into the parliament.
Panchugov expects surprises from the presentation of Vanya Grigorova's left formation, based on her successful campaign in Sofia as a candidate for mayor.
"Radev's inclusion depends on the projects he will support in these elections. If he does not lead any of the projects, they are doomed to failure. I don't think he's going to get directly involved in this fight" commented the political scientist.
For him, accepting Elena Yoncheva to join the ranks of the DPS for the EP is a "huge provocation".
"There are no innocents. Both parties are responsible – GERB-SDS and PP-DB, for the failed rotation. And this will also become visible during the elections – low voter turnout. I don't think it is possible to mobilize the electorate, unless we see drastic changes in the strategies of the parties", Hristo Panchugov is convinced.