It seems as if there is some coordination in the creation of a government between the group around the president and GERB. It is most likely that there will be a government.
This opinion was expressed to the Bulgarian National Radio by political scientist Georgi Prodanov.
However, for him, the ambiguity is related to GERB, because in his words, the party leader has proven that he is a person who can change his decision at the last moment.
According to him, a coalition between GERB and the BSP is surprising for both voters.
"We are in a situation that is extremely close to that of the creation of the triple coalition in 2005. The result of the participation of those 3 parties in the triple coalition to date is that 2 of them do not exist in their previous size, and one does not exist at all. So a bad forecast for a similar current coalition could be in the same direction", commented the political scientist in an interview for the program "Predi visi".
According to him, in the current situation, GERB may also suffer image damage:
"The mixing of incomparable electorates of GERB, BSP, DPS and ITN around the common table will certainly not be well received in the long term. In the short term - we need a government and this is probably the best that can be assembled at the moment".
In his words, the euro will be one of the "traded topics". However, we have reached far enough there that the process cannot be reversed, he believes. According to him, the big bargaining chip will be the issue of support for Ukraine:
"This will be the sacrifice that will bring them together. It is very likely that this will be one of the stones on which the coalition will stand".
For him, the second price of this coalition will be the changes to the Judiciary Law. "Or at least these changes will not be in the version that everyone expects - to have more serious control over the figure of the Prosecutor General", added Prodanov.
In this sense, he emphasized that this coalition is suicidal for both GERB and DB. "Both parties are extremely moving away from conducting pure politics - they are taking the step that once made sense of their existence, to not form a coalition with the BSP, with the DPS. At the moment, they are already desired and possible coalition partners. There is also a chance that Peevski in the shadows will practically do whatever he wants as a necessary factor in a qualified majority", explained the political scientist. According to him, this will not stop the political processes in society, which are in the direction of radicalization and the search for other political alternatives. According to him, the current parliamentary parties are moving towards a "status quo" option through such a coalition.
"I have nothing against such a coalition, but it seems strikingly unprincipled and this cannot fail to be noticed by the voters," he believes.
Georgi Prodanov pointed out that DPS-Dogan has 2 moves - either to find a common language with DPS-Peevski, or to always be close to power and thus guarantee its existence. According to him, their position will be linked to their survival as a party, which makes them extremely susceptible to bargaining.
"Both DPS-Dogan and DPS-Peevski have the same origin. The people who defend their interests, regardless of how they rebrand themselves, remain the same. If these are indeed Peevski's people in the caretaker government and are moving into the current government, this only confirms the idea that GERB and Peevski are inextricably linked and a subsequent government, behind whatever coalition partner it is hidden, will be the main node of redistribution of interests and resources. Peevski must decide his political future. Participation in power will give him the opportunity to protect and nurture people around him, to create structures. Such a government can last long enough. This is the negative scenario", commented the political scientist.
"Given the participants in such a government and the doubts about support from Peevski, I see no formal reason, other than the street, for him to terminate his mandate. If he continues with the abundance of social payments, support for business, compensations for energy, the street will be quiet".
Regarding the possible distribution of ministerial posts, Georgi Prodanov commented:
"It is seen that the traditional sectors in which there were suspicions of corruption are again with the same people and individuals. The coincidence of the same names for the same posts is too noticeable to be a coincidence - Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Health - allocations that have always carried with them serious financial resources - portfolios that are currently possibly going to the Ministry of National Security.
"Distribution of interests, not so much of policies,", the political scientist summarized.
He believes that Daniel Mitov is a relatively clean candidate. He cannot be linked to behind-the-scenes suspicions, Prodanov added, expressing his opinion that this would be a good move. Taking on political responsibility is significant, he believes.