The birth rate in Japan is expected to be at a record low by 2025 since 1899, when such statistics began to be kept, the Asahi newspaper reported, citing its own calculations based on statistical data.
According to the newspaper's forecast, the number of births in 2025 will be 667,500, compared to 686,100 in 2024. This forecast includes only children born to Japanese citizens. Official statistics for 2025 are expected in June, and preliminary data, which include information on foreigners residing in the country, will be published in February.
The demographic situation is developing significantly worse than previously predicted by the National Institute for Population and Social Security Research. For example, in 2023, the average forecast for 2025 was for 749,000 births. The estimate, cited by the newspaper “Asahi“, is significantly lower than even the worst-case scenario, which predicts the birth of 681,000 children. According to a forecast by the Population Institute, a birth rate of 666,000 per year is expected until 2041.
In recent years, the country has experienced a record low birth rate, accompanied by an aging society. This has led to a decline in the working-age population and a labor shortage.