Pakistan's role as a possible host of talks to end the war in Iran is based on Islamabad's political attempts to please US President Donald Trump and the country's reputation as a relatively neutral player with stable relations with the neighboring Islamic Republic.
If the talks do take place, it would raise Pakistan's international profile to levels not seen since the country helped broker the secret diplomatic effort that led to US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972.
It would be the culmination of more than a year of efforts to build ties with Trump, made possible by of cunning diplomacy and cryptocurrency deals.
Pakistan, which maintains direct contact with both Washington and Tehran at a time when such communication channels are closed to most countries, would also directly benefit from an end to the war.
The South Asian country is home to the world's second-largest Shiite Muslim community after Iran, which sparked nationwide protests the day after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in US-Israeli strikes at the start of the conflict on February 28.
The risk of a prolonged war in Iran that spills over into Pakistan is among Islamabad's biggest fears, analysts and security officials say. Pakistan, which has been embroiled in a conflict with the Afghan Taliban, has also suffered from the collapse of fuel supplies due to the war in Iran.
"Pakistan is an extremely reliable mediator because it has a working relationship with both Washington and Tehran and has had periods of tension with both sides, which makes Pakistan equidistant enough to play the role of an honest mediator," Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East Program at the Quincy Institute, told Reuters.
Building a relationship with Trump
Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has forged close ties with Trump in an effort to overcome years of mistrust between Washington and Islamabad. In January, Pakistan joined Trump’s Peace Council, and Munir traveled to Davos specifically to meet Trump.
Pakistan struck a deal with a crypto company linked to the Trump family to use its USD1 stablecoin for international payments, while U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff helped broker a deal to redevelop the Roosevelt Hotel in New York, which is owned by Pakistan’s national airline.
Pakistan has been involved in diplomatic efforts to end the Iran conflict since the beginning of the war, with at least six messages exchanged between the U.S. and Iran, according to Pakistani sources.
Before Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed his offer to host talks on Tuesday, Pakistani and foreign sources said representatives from the two warring parties could meet in Islamabad later this week. The Pakistani source said that US Vice President J.D. Vance, Whitkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner are expected to participate in the talks.
According to official press releases, Sharif and the Pakistani foreign minister have held more than 30 talks with their counterparts in the Middle East over the past month, including six with Iranian officials. Two of those took place on Monday, when the US announced that mediation efforts were underway, in parallel with a phone call between Trump and Munir, which the White House confirmed.
"Pakistan hosting the US-Iran talks would greatly enhance Islamabad's international standing," Kamran Bukhari told Reuters – expert at the Council on Near East Policy, a Washington think tank.
"After decades of being known as a troubled state, Pakistan is now re-emerging on the map as a key American ally in West Asia," he said.
Tehran ties
Bukhari said Pakistan is Iran's least hostile neighbor, while "maintaining the closest ties with Tehran's historic adversary in the Gulf region - Saudi Arabia - and having the trust of Washington."
Pakistan shares a border with Iran in the historical and geographical region of Balochistan. But the situation along it is complicated, as rebel groups have been operating on both sides for years. Instability in the border areas even caused a brief military clash between Tehran and Islamabad in January 2024, but relations were restored and even upgraded immediately after.
Iran may see Pakistan as a more neutral country compared to other potential mediators. "Unlike Gulf countries like Qatar, Pakistan has not hosted American military bases on its territory and is a global military power in its own right," Weinstein said.
Pakistan can also rely on historical traditions in its role as a mediator – After the rupture in relations between Iran and the United States due to the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Pakistani embassy in Tehran effectively took over the representation of Washington's diplomatic interests.
The defense pact between Islamabad and Riyadh, concluded in September, contains a clause for mutual military assistance in case of need, which is also a factor taken into account in the analyses.
When the US war in Iran entered its second week and Tehran attacked Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that he had reminded Iran of the agreement and therefore attempted to mediate with Iran.
Pakistani security sources said that Islamabad was bound by the agreement, but through negotiations through unofficial channels with Tehran was trying to avoid getting involved in the conflict.
Translation from English: Deyana Hristova, BTA