On Monday, March 30, Iran fired a series of missiles at Israel, while the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen carried out their second attack since the start of the US-Israeli war. The Israeli military said that two drones launched from Yemen were intercepted on March 30.
The Houthis first entered the conflict two days earlier, firing missiles at Israel. This has escalated concerns that they could take action to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, which would further push up oil prices, which have already jumped more than 50% in a month.
After the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, Iran has threatened to attack the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Gulf of Aden, south of the Red Sea. Creating uncertainty in other straits is one way to counter US threats.
Iran will expand its retaliatory measures if the United States or Israel launch a ground offensive in the region. A military response still appears to be on the agenda, despite calls from the US president for peace talks, while Washington shows no sign of slowing its military buildup in the Middle East.
Trump threatened to destroy Iran's main oil export terminal on Kharg Island and other energy infrastructure if Tehran does not agree to a deal. In his post on the social media site Truth, Trump indicated that the US was in "serious talks" with a "more sensible regime" in Tehran, but warned that if a deal was not reached, the US would end its wonderful stay in Iran by destroying all Iranian power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island. The US president has previously floated the idea of seizing Iran's oil.
Faced with a growing threat, the Islamic Republic is considering an escalation that could include closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with the involvement of the Houthis, who have so far been surprisingly quiet. The Iranian-backed group is ideally positioned to exercise control over the strategic waterway. The Houthis' unique geographical position creates fertile ground for action in the Red Sea, and especially at the level of the strait.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait plays a key role in global trade, as well as in the supply of oil and gas to Europe. In normal times, about 15% of the world's seaborne trade by value passes through it. The strait also plays a central role in transporting oil and gas from the Gulf states to Europe. Tankers leave ports in the Persian Gulf, pass through the Strait of Hormuz, cross the Bab el-Mandeb, and then travel up the Red Sea to reach Europe via the Suez Canal. The passage at the southern end of the Red Sea is also heavily used by container ships carrying Asian goods destined for European markets.
A disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would primarily affect Asia, while a blockade of traffic in the Gulf of Aden is more likely to punish Europe. The situation in the Middle East puts the importance of Bab el-Mandeb in perspective, especially since the number of tankers traveling from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via the Strait of Hormuz has already been significantly reduced.
Saudi Arabia has been able to redirect some of its oil exports to rely more on the Red Sea. Through the "East-West" pipeline Riyadh is trying to supply Asia from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, which passes through the strait. If that route also becomes dangerous, "Saudi oil going east would have to take the Suez Strait and the Mediterranean route, which would extend delivery times and raise prices even if the volumes in question remain well below those affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Sea traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait had already fallen sharply, long before the current escalation in the Middle East. After the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the start of the war in Gaza, the Houthis regularly attacked ships in the Red Sea. Before 2023, about 60 to 70 cargo ships passed through each day. Now that number has been halved. Closing the Bab el-Mandab Strait may therefore have less of an impact than it would have had before, but it would come at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already very limited. Parallel actions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab would create major problems in terms of how to deal with these disruptions and the flow of goods.
And the humanitarian consequences could be devastating. Forced to travel longer routes, cargo ships would not be able to make as many trips, meaning shipping companies might have to make choices and perhaps not serve some countries because it is less economically viable than the major routes. The cheapest shipments usually include essential goods, such as grain destined for poorer countries. This could cause major disruptions to regional maritime trade, with an impact on food security in the Horn of Africa.
The real question remains whether the Houthis want to block the strait on behalf of Iran. Their restraint since the start of the war has actually served both their own interests and those of Iran. On the one hand, massive US strikes and the infiltration of their organization by Israeli intelligence, which succeeded in beheading part of their command structure, have cooled the armed group. They also fear that their involvement in the war would prolong the conflict, which runs counter to the interests of China, which prefers stability and a quick end to the conflict" and which has become an increasingly important partner for the Houthis. Their reluctance to intervene has not particularly worried Iran, for which the Houthis represent a strategic reserve.
Vincent Durac, a Yemen and Middle East expert at University College Dublin, said the group's recent missile strikes on Israel could partly be a way of showing solidarity with Iranian interests, but "without really doing much." He added that the timing could also reflect the Houthis' desire to emphasize their regional position, which they have only recently acquired. He said any deeper escalation, especially a move to cut off shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, could carry serious risks for the group itself. Yemen is extremely dependent on imports. The disruption of shipping, the disruption of trade, is actually not that good for the Yemeni economy, Durak said.
The group also took into account what happened to the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah. According to Durak, the ease with which the American and Israeli military, security and intelligence services have attacked their enemies in the region is not something they want to voluntarily bring upon themselves.
The Houthis' allies in Yemen will have no difficulty blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at least initially. It is a very narrow strait, less than 30 kilometers wide at one point, which makes blockade operations easy. But while cutting off traffic might be relatively easy and quick, keeping the crossing closed would be much more difficult, would mean maintaining widespread denial, and would require sustained efforts.
Given what is at stake, the military and diplomatic pressure on the Houthis would be enormous. Above all, it remains unclear whether the group still has the financial and military means to maintain a blockade in the long term.