160 votes to justice - will Radev have the strength to break the system? Elena Darieva to FACTI

After the early elections, Bulgaria found itself in a new and largely unknown political situation - with a clearly defined winner, concentrated public expectations and the possibility of independent governance. The results rearranged the political space - weakening of traditional players, mobilization of the protest vote and strengthening of formations that promise a change in the governance model. Against this background, the questions are no longer whether there will be governance, but what it will be - whether it will bring the sought-after stability, justice and institutional efficiency, or will it become another missed opportunity. The topic of judicial reform is emerging as particularly key, around which both a new political majority and new lines of opposition can be formed. And what else... Elena Darieva from the sociological agency “Nasoka“ spoke to FACTI.

- Ms. Darieva, are we witnessing a new political era in Bulgaria with the victory of Rumen Radev's party in the elections?
- To be precise - yes, there are signs of a new political era, but it is not so much a matter of enthusiasm as of a huge concentration of expectations. The fact that the formation around Rumen Radev has the potential for an independent governing majority is something new.

- However, we did not see anything like this under Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, nor under Boyko Borisov in his first term?
- Of course, direct comparisons are not entirely correct. In 2001, the NMSV won a very strong result with high voter turnout, but did not reach an independent majority - 120 MPs put him in a situation where seeking support was inevitable. That is why Saxe-Coburg-Gotha chose a partnership with the UDF and the MRF, with the clear goal of ensuring stable governance within a full mandate.
Now the situation is different. Radev has the opportunity to govern alone, and this means full political responsibility. That is why the question of strategy is key - will he seek broad support and consensus, or will he rely on a one-party model of governance.
Expectations for “Progressive Bulgaria“ are extremely high. Voters have clearly shown that they want an end to political instability, more predictable governance and, above all, a sense of stability and justice. Against the backdrop of global uncertainty, people are looking for stabilization within the country.

- This is where the big test comes in - judicial reform. The request to change the Supreme Judicial Council and elect a new Prosecutor General is a strong political signal, and did we hear that from Radev?
- But there are different ways for this to happen. One is more formal - changing the composition and the individuals, without changing the essence of the system. The other is profound - changing the rules, the accountability mechanisms and actually limiting political influence in the judiciary. The real question is which of these paths will be chosen. Because it is not enough to simply have a new SJC and a new Prosecutor General - what is important is whether this will lead to a truly functioning and independent judicial system. In other words, Radev's result is binding. He creates expectations not just for governance, but for a change in the model itself. And whether this will happen, we will find out not from the first appointments, but from whether there will be a real transformation in the way the institutions work.

- What will be decisive for the direction of the judicial reform?
- There is a very important indicator – how far the political will will go. Let's not forget that in the recent past Rumen Radev also hinted at changes to the Constitution, including with regard to presidential power. This opens a broader horizon – not just personnel changes, but a potential rearrangement of the institutional balance. The question is whether there will be a majority and determination for such a step.

- How do you interpret the results of the main political forces – PP-DB and GERB? We see almost equal positions between PP and GERB as a symbolic clash – success for some and a serious blow for GERB, and the pre-election sociology did not predict this?
- PP-DB is increasing its result, which shows that they have managed to capitalize on some of the civic energy from the protests. But the biggest winner from this wave is undoubtedly the formation around Radev. With GERB, the picture is different - they took on the negatives from the last government. Their participation in complex governance configurations, including with the BSP and "There is such a people", as well as their dependence on the support of the DPS - New Beginning, created ideological tensions and repelled some of the voters.

- Was the will of the protests expressed in this vote?
- The protests were extremely clear in their messages - people want a government without suspicions of corruption, without arrogance, with fair elections and an independent judiciary. These are basic expectations, but they turned out to be deficient. The political forces that managed to associate themselves with these demands won. Those that were associated with the status quo lost. There may also be internal problems in GERB that influenced the result. There are indications of simmering discontent at the local level. The lack of sufficient resources, delayed projects and the tension during the administration of Rosen Zhelyazkov are factors that should not be underestimated. Mayors are in a special position - they are more like managers than party figures, and they are accountable to citizens on a daily basis. When the relationship with the central government does not work well, this directly affects trust. And here there was a clear symbol in Radev's campaign. Let us remember that he appeared with the mayor of Stara Zagora, who is one of the most successful in the GERB party. His appearance with Zhivko Todorov was a strong political signal. This gesture by Radev can be interpreted as an invitation to the local government - that a partnership across party lines is possible. And this signal was understood. For many mayors, this means stability and the opportunity to work, regardless of national political opposition.

- For the first time, we will have a parliament without the BSP in it?
- Yes, this is happening for the first time in the new political history of Bulgaria. Despite the change in leadership, the result shows a deep crisis. However, it is possible that this period will prove to be healing for the left - leading to catharsis and purification. The participation of the BSP in the last government also contributed to this poor result. And the higher voter turnout further limited its chances, as well as those of other smaller parties, to enter parliament.

- The higher voter turnout also hit the other small parties…
- This was expected.

- We are moving towards five parties in parliament. Does this suggest more stable governance…
- To some extent, yes. Higher turnout reduces fragmentation and brings fewer formations into parliament. This creates the prerequisites for a clearer majority and more stable governance. In this case, the coalition around Rumen Radev has enough mandates, which means that it can independently push through decisions related to the current government. There is the issue of wider majorities, especially for judicial reform. Here we are already talking about completely different things from regular governance. For serious changes, especially in the judicial system, a constitutional majority of 160 deputies is needed. I believe that with the current distribution there is the potential for a constitutional majority to be achieved, but it will not be automatic – it will require negotiations and political will. Will we see
160 votes for justice, will Radev have the strength to break the system? We have already seen signals in this direction. Rumen Radev reached out to the PP-DB, and namely the terrain of judicial reform could prove to be a natural basis for interaction. This is a topic on which there is overlap of positions. The question is whether this cooperation will remain thematic, limited to specific reforms, or will it grow into a broader and sustainable political partnership. This will be the first test before this interaction, to see how they will work together on the changes in the Supreme Judicial Council and the Prosecutor's Office. It is there that we will see whether there is real trust and the ability for joint action, or whether we will remain at the level of declarations. The voters voted for a clear leader who will not only change the governance model, but also become a guarantor of its abolition. The voters do not want the replacement of one model with another, but they wanted there to be no more models that are self-sustaining and reproduce at the cost of corruption and compromises. In the name of this, they delegated sufficient resources to Rumen Radev and the “Progressive Bulgaria“ so that there is no room for excuses. The voters turned off the system, and whether it will work differently when the “new software“ is installed is a matter of the future, the near future, because citizens have their finger on the “restart“ button.