The military situation in the Middle East remains unclear - despite the formal ceasefire between Iran and the US. There are constantly new strikes - among the latest are the attack on a US military helicopter, on an Indian tanker ready to transport Iranian oil, as well as on US military bases in the Persian Gulf region and in Jordan. Both sides accuse each other of escalating tensions. At the same time, there is a risk that the conflict will expand on a regional scale, since allies are indirectly involved in it.
A fundamental problem in US strategy
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is particularly critical. The important trade route is effectively blocked, tankers are piling up, supply chains are slowing down, and uncertainty is pushing up energy prices worldwide. In an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF, military economist Markus Koep, an associate professor at the Military Academy in Zurich, where Swiss army officers are trained, analyzed the situation.
According to him, the conflict reveals a fundamental problem in American strategy. In addition to aircraft carriers and modern weapons systems at the disposal of the United States, Donald Trump is mainly focused on American military superiority. He thinks along these lines: "My army is bigger than yours (...), so I'll just bomb you to smithereens". But things are clearly not working out the way Trump imagined, says Koep.
The coordination of military actions with Israel is also not going exactly as the American president would like. "Israel is now standing up and saying: "No, if necessary, we will continue alone". Trump is not presenting himself as a great commander-in-chief - on the contrary. The situation is slipping away from him - both militarily and economically, believes the associate professor at the Military Academy in Zurich.
According to Koep, the US president will need some news of a success or a deal soon. Otherwise, Trump will come under "really severe pressure" due to the shortage of oil on the market.
The economic dimension is of decisive importance, says the military economist. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 20 million barrels of oil have been lost daily since the start of the war due to the lack of oil supplies from the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline (Petroline) and the Kurdish Oil Pipeline can only compensate for about a third of this amount, Koep points out. The IEA has released oil reserves to help bridge the supply gap, but the expert says they will soon run out.
If a deal isn't struck soon
According to the military economist, the current expectation is that a deal will be struck in time. However, if that doesn't happen, "then we will have to prepare again for a scenario of a sharp increase in oil prices, and within a few weeks". This will put Trump under pressure domestically, as his voters will also be affected by rising energy prices, which will also lead to higher prices for goods in supermarkets, explains Koep.
When the midterm elections are held on November 3, this would be the scenario that Trump needs the least, says the Zurich associate professor in this regard.
With poor results in the midterm elections, Trump could lose his majority in Congress. Koep assumes that the Republican Party will then also begin to distance itself from its president. At the same time, the military economist sees structural advantages for Iran.
"This [Iranian] regime does not have to take into account things like popularity or acceptance," emphasizes Koep. And he adds that Iran is also economically viable. "Iran is definitely able to continue exporting its oil - for example, through smuggling channels from the special economic zones of the United Arab Emirates." Iran also continues to sell oil to China, the expert said.
According to Koep, scarce and expensive oil will hurt Trump "much, much more than it will hurt Iran.".
Author: Maria Ilcheva (editor)