In 2013, migration in Bulgaria, and in Europe as a whole, was not a serious problem. Refugees from Syria were arriving in our country, who were truly fleeing the war, and were not simply looking for an opportunity to change the country in which they live. At the time, it seemed outrageous that no more people were being allowed in and that they were settling in remote villages and abandoned military bases. The government of Plamen Oresharski resigned, but GERB continued this practice, despite the calls of their own president Plevneliev.
It then became clear that there was an unspoken principle of awareness of the national interest and the implementation of a national policy. Formally, we avoid confrontations on the European stage when it comes to migration. In reality, the police in our country prevent migrants from crossing, and those who succeed do so with the help of smugglers who demand high sums of money. If someone tries alone, they may die of cold or be beaten and robbed by self-proclaimed "migrant hunters". And when they get where they are headed, they will advise others to avoid Bulgaria.
Another unwritten principle of Bulgarian economic policy is not to allow Chinese contractors to large-scale investment projects. Even if the Chinese are the only ones who promise to dig the tunnels under Shipka and Petrohan quickly and efficiently, the answer is: “Thanks, but no“.
The theater that is being played out around the American tanker planes and the question of where they can be stationed at Bulgarian airports is also a performance for the public, concealing another principle of Bulgarian foreign policy.
The US is not being given up. We are buying fighter jets without public procurement, we are buying armored vehicles for the infantry, we are buying more fighter jets. The tanker planes left, supposedly because the US did not abolish visas for Bulgarians. And now they are returning, only not to Sofia airport, but to Bezmer.
Prime Minister Rumen Radev is playing his role.
A month ago he was categorical - no visas, no room for the planes. Now he has adopted the thesis that we have a strategic partnership agreement. The decisions were not made solely by the government, but by the National Assembly. That is, by the will of the people. In reality, Rumen Radev hid behind his deputies, as well as behind other parties that know this principle - GERB and DPS.
The other parties of the so-called status quo, because they have been in politics for decades and know this principle, or perhaps because of the dependencies of their leaders, immediately said “yes“.
It got to the point that the former Minister of Defense and GERB MP Atanas Zapryanov explained to a television station at the beginning of the week that we must protect the MiG-29 fighters because the F-16 has not yet been fully mastered. The military knows whether there are not enough trained pilots, or the reason is something else, but our skies are still protected by the Bulgarian MiG-29 fighters, produced in Russia. That is why it is even possible that we will accept Polish MiGs to pilot.
The very next day, the same Minister Zapryanov explained, again on another television channel, that during the caretaker government, the tankers were here for training purposes.
Our pilots were even close to practicing aerial refueling. It is difficult to judge whether he himself believes what he said, or whether he is counting on the audience not to notice the discrepancy. It is unlikely that the Americans would send several tanker planes to practice aerial refueling of the Bulgarian F-16s, for which there are probably fewer trained pilots than there are tanker planes accepted.
It is interesting how whenever international tension increases and a great power transfers its forces to a given region of the world, it suddenly turns out that they are there for training. Another question is that if we ask the Ministry of Defense whether it was notified of such exercises and whether it entered the current maneuvers into the calendar at the end of last year, it will most likely remain silent.
When we see politicians from every political force backing down from their bold threats that it will be different with them, it is most likely that we are fulfilling a demand that we cannot refuse. Of course, we must also ask ourselves whether Bulgaria really cannot refuse, or whether the politicians themselves cannot do so because of their addictions.
The media's job is to understand and show the audience that this is a theater with assigned roles.
Borisov used to say “yes” to the Americans. Today, Rumen Radev says it. Systemic parties know these unwritten principles and adhere to them.
Parties like “Vazrazhdane“, whose role is to keep the real anti-NATO sentiments under control, speak out against it, but remain alone. If ever the wind of change blows again with the force of that of 1989 and the time comes to truly say no to the Americans, it is formations like “Vazrazhdane“ that may prove to be the foundation on which the new political elite will be built. Parties like PP-DB claim to have protected Bulgaria from war over the past four years, and accuse the new government of failing in the same task.
All this may also provide an answer to the paradox of how the BSP - a party considered by many to be politically exhausted - has produced more presidents from the so-called right-wing space. The Bulgarian is wise enough to want the benefits of the West, but to expect Bulgaria to show dignity on the international stage. That is why he supports right-wing political forces that still keep us oriented towards the West, but elects as presidents individuals who demonstrate Euroscepticism.
However, this works in years of peace. The era of confrontation in which we live increasingly allows politicians to stand without taking a categorical position. It used to be possible to figuratively say that we are for “good football”, and not specify whether we support “Levski” or CSKA. That time has passed and the first victim of the new era will most likely be Prime Minister Rumen Radev. Boyko Borisov, despite all his shortcomings, was at least consistent and predictable.
Rumen Radev has already begun to cause discontent among the public with his stubborn consistency in doing the opposite of what he says.
He refused a referendum on the euro when he had the formal authority to give him a go. He asked for one when it was unlikely to happen, but in reality his entry into politics was already approaching. He demonstrated firmness against the American tanks, but in the end he gave in. Bulgaria's position regarding Ukraine is hardly clear even to the narrowest circle of trusted people in “Progressive Bulgaria“.
Such behavior is disconcerting his supporters, because no one can trust him, and this makes it impossible to recruit allies. Not to mention that Borisov and Peevski can hardly be defeated on the field of populism. On the same field, Kornelia Ninova tried to defeat them and in the end not only she lost, but also her party. Rumen Radev came with the promise that he was something new. More analytical. More prudent. More principled. A few more such mistakes and the public will completely stop perceiving him in such a light. And he will become another great hope that raises the sea level of mediocrity.