On August 15, 2026, the Taliban marked the fifth anniversary of their rule in Afghanistan. During this time, relations between the Central Asian countries and the new Afghan regime have evolved from political hostility to practical economic cooperation. Kazinform's correspondent from Dushanbe examines the clear lessons that the Central Asian countries have learned from the situation in Afghanistan.
Tajik political scientist Sherali Rizoyon notes that July-August 2026 represented a significant challenge for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. For the first time, the group's military and political opponents managed to temporarily seize and control territory in Badakhshan. This shows the existing problems that the Taliban administration faces due to its own limitations and must find ways to address them in the future.
“The second rise of the Taliban to power and the subsequent global events, geopolitical conflicts, the US containment of China, the Trump administration's trade wars and the unstable situation in the Middle East have contributed to a change in the perception of Afghanistan in Central Asia“, the speaker noted.
Reviewing the five-year experience of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, the expert highlighted the following key points:
First, the collapse of the republic and the rise of the Taliban to power demonstrated the country's unchanged development priorities. The Taliban not only continued the construction of existing infrastructure projects, such as TAPI, CASA-1000, and the Trans-Afghanistan Railway, but also began implementing previously planned projects (such as the Kushta Canal) and launched new transport and transit projects.
Secondly, the Taliban continue to use the narratives of almost all previous governments in their foreign policy regarding Afghanistan’s self-determination as a neutral country and as a geographical space between Central, East, South Asia, and the Middle East. The Taliban’s location between these different geopolitical regions makes the issue of connectivity through Afghanistan crucial, which is clearly evident in the Taliban’s foreign policy approach.
Thirdly, for all previous Afghan governments, interaction with and perceptions of Pakistan remained a separate issue, as the two countries blamed each other for all their problems. In August 2021, Islamabad, which had invested significant efforts in shaping the Taliban as a military-political and religious movement and facilitated both their rise to power, appeared to be the main beneficiary of the Taliban’s rise in Kabul. The Taliban subsequently began to distance themselves from Pakistan, and today the narratives that prevailed during the republic are used in relation to that country.
“The Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan was a shock to the Central Asian states and reshaped the regional security architecture, reducing the emphasis on narratives about the perception of challenges and threats and encouraging the emergence of new opportunities,“ said Sherali Rizoyon.
According to him, in the past five years, countries in the region have begun to “open up” the South, which had always remained closed. Today, Central Asian countries are initiating their own transport and transit projects running from Afghanistan to Pakistan and Iran, which will help diversify trade routes. If these infrastructure projects are successfully implemented, the countries of the region will be able to establish a balance in their relations with neighboring regions.
The expert noted that the five-year experience under the Taliban rule has taught Central Asia two important lessons:
The importance of a separate agenda for Afghanistan. The countries of the region, in one form or another, have developed their own programs along the Afghan route and have undergone transformation. Each country seeks to use this window of opportunity to implement infrastructure projects. There is a mutual interest in this area: the countries of the region want access to sea routes through Afghanistan to Pakistan or Iran, while Kabul is interested in reducing its dependence on its other neighbors for foreign trade. The closure of Pakistan's borders since October 2025 and the reorientation of Afghanistan's trade towards Iran and the north have demonstrated the importance of such diversification.
The Importance of Afghanistan's Own Perception. The "stable instability" in Afghanistan has influenced the formation of a security-oriented perception of the Central Asian country. The second return of the Taliban was accompanied by new narratives, and today the economic approach prevails. Therefore, it is "unpopular" to discuss security challenges and threats when talking about Afghanistan today. Despite the "rejection" or reduction of the security-oriented perception of Afghanistan, the existence of existing threats and challenges does not disappear. Therefore, a balance between potential benefits and existing realities is needed.
It should be noted that Afghanistan is a unique country where key established narratives are consistently adhered to, regardless of the nature of power, as well as space. Any unpredictable events are possible. Therefore, focusing on Afghanistan as a neighboring country and promoting economic pragmatism is in the long-term interest of the Central Asian countries, concluded Sherali Rizoyon.
The news was published on the basis of an information exchange agreement between Fakti.bg and Kazinform