Relations between Bulgaria and Ukraine have soured after the crash of a drone, probably Ukrainian, on Bulgarian territory. While Sofia summons the Ukrainian ambassador, the issue of support for Kiev and Bulgaria's position on the war is at the center of the debates.
Franceinfo's morning block interviewed Romain Le Quinue, CEO of Euro Creative, about the political tensions in Bulgaria, its support for Ukraine and the challenges related to its defense industry.
Bulgaria summoned the Ukrainian ambassador. Relations between the two countries have suddenly become strained after the crash of a drone, probably Ukrainian, on Bulgarian territory. Should we believe the Ukrainians when they tell us that the entry of their drone into Bulgarian territory was not intentional or premeditated?
Yes, I think we should believe the Ukrainian side and ultimately the Bulgarian authorities. In any case, the Bulgarian military authorities even seem potentially more measured in their approach than what has been presented in the media so far. In fact, it is a Ukrainian drone, which is called a "drone decoy", that is, a defense system. So we can certainly believe in such a possibility. In fact, there is a political debate in Bulgaria, triggered by the current political situation in the country, with a government in power that is outwardly quite critical of Ukraine, but in reality is neither that critical nor that hostile, and yet follows the consensus of NATO and European Union countries. Therefore, there is a very strong opposition in Bulgaria, especially from the far right, as well as from another opposition group that is critical of the current Prime Minister Rumen Radev and openly expresses its disagreement with him.
So, it is indeed a very polarized political debate, which ultimately leads to this rather strong reaction from the political authorities, while at the military level the reaction is much more moderate.
And the conclusion that I would like to draw from this initial reaction is that the prevailing opinion in the Bulgarian media this morning is: we need to buy defense systems. Bulgaria has not made significant progress on this issue, especially compared to countries like Poland, the Baltic states or even Romania. Bulgaria is lagging behind in terms of its defense systems. Therefore, the country needs to make the necessary changes, buy equipment and develop defense capabilities on its own territory.
In June, Bulgaria suspended its military assistance to Ukraine. Do you have the feeling that in those countries that are particularly affected by the diversion of Ukrainian and sometimes Russian drones, there is a decline in support for Ukraine?
First, to answer the first part of the question, we need to distinguish politics from business. Bulgaria has a very developed defense industry, especially in the production of ammunition. Ultimately, we can compare the Bulgarian position with that of Serbia, which is to say that they publicly state that they do not want to help Ukraine, that this is a conflict that does not concern them and that they are for peace, in quotes. And at the same time, they are very happy with the opportunity to have large-scale orders for their defense industry, to develop their industrial capacity and attract investments.
In the end, Rumen Radev, as soon as he came to power, went to Berlin and Paris and negotiated guarantees that these two countries would indeed support investments in Bulgaria. So Rumen Radev's position is indeed quite pragmatic. Publicly, and especially when addressing the Bulgarian population, he is very critical of the war and shows that Bulgaria has no intention of supporting either side, in order to avoid potentially, or so it is said, placing Bulgaria in one camp or the other. But in fact Bulgaria is in one camp; it is part of the European Union, it is part of NATO. Therefore, Bulgaria supports Ukraine, at least on a political and diplomatic level.
Bulgaria joined the Schengen area this year and even adopted the euro. But one gets the impression that its support for Ukraine is somewhat "shy" or covert. I remember a report in Le Monde from 2023, if I am not mistaken, about an arms factory in the heart of Bulgaria that was producing ammunition for Ukraine. The workers themselves were not aware of what they were producing, or they did not want to know, or they turned a blind eye. It was not talked about. There is a kind of tacit silence in Bulgaria. Does this summarize the Bulgarian position?
No, absolutely not. In any case, on these issues, we can always turn to public opinion. It is true that Bulgaria is one of those countries that is highly polarized and where potentially the majority of the population is not at all inclined to support Ukraine. This is related to history, in particular to the fact that Bulgaria has been subjected to pressure, Pan-Slavic influence and political parties manipulated by Moscow for years. It is also about propaganda and disinformation - both on the part of Bulgarian political and public factors themselves, and on the part of Russia - through various systems and mechanisms of corruption that have penetrated the country to a greater or lesser extent.
With regard to defense and the defense industry, Bulgaria has a defense industry that is generally very close to Western systems and contacts, especially the Ukrainian armed forces. So, ultimately, yes, we may have workers, we may have a large part of public opinion that is very cautious, even against supporting Ukraine, but at the same time there is reality, political reality and economic reality. And Rumen Radev is trying, as much as he can, to walk a tightrope, and in this regard he is criticized by his opponents, both by the more pro-Western and the more pro-Russian factions. So there are quite active, quite heated debates, and even, I would say, within Radev's own cabinet there is criticism and disagreement.
And this is precisely the essence of the issue and of all those challenges that we talked about a few months ago, when as experts on Bulgaria and Bulgarian politics we analyzed the coming to power of former President Rumen Radev, who had to find a way to unite the different political forces both in the country and in his own government.