I am afraid that on the eve of the presidential elections, Bulgaria may become the subject of a much more serious Russian hybrid operation than we have seen so far.
I am not talking just about disinformation.
I am talking about real actions - cyberattacks, sabotage, provocations, incidents in the country and in the Black Sea, attacks on critical infrastructure, operations to produce fear and news.
Everything that can be turned into political emotion.
Because the Russian hybrid war is not being waged to win elections in the traditional sense. It is being waged to change the environment in which people vote.
To produce fear. To produce chaos. To convince society that the state cannot protect it. To vote for the “peace-loving“ against the “war-loving“
To make support for Ukraine look like an act against national security and a cause of danger.
And finally - to leave the voter with a simple choice:
“Either peace or war.“ This is the trap. The scheme is simple - Moscow scares, Yotova and Radev win.
The EU has already officially defined Russian hybrid campaigns as aimed at undermining democracy and the electoral process. The European Parliament has described the goal of hybrid operations with even greater precision - to destabilize, divide and weaken democratic institutions and defense readiness.
Therefore, the elections in Bulgaria should not be viewed only as a competition between candidates. They could become an operational target of Russian special psychological operations.
And here is the big risk.
If in the weeks before the vote Bulgaria is subjected to a series of attacks or provocations, each of which in itself may seem like a separate incident, but all together produce the same political emotion, we will have to ask ourselves a very simple question:
Who benefits from fear?
Because Moscow does not need to speak out in favor of Yotova's candidacy. The Kremlin does not need to control her campaign. It does not even need to have direct coordination.
It is enough to create an environment in which her message of “peace“ seems like the only salvation from the manufactured danger and to provoke the instinct to bow down and kneel. Or kiss the Tsar's hand in the Kremlin. Yotova is good at this.
And that is precisely why we should view the upcoming presidential elections not only as a choice between personalities.
They are also a choice about whether Bulgaria will retain its ability to determine for itself what a threat is and how to defend itself from it.
Because if Moscow manages to impose its own dichotomy - “war or peace“ - on Bulgarian society even before we have discussed what security means, what deterrence means and what allied solidarity means, half the battle will already be won/lost.
And then comes the second stage. Political consolidation around “peace“. And then it is no longer just about the personality of the president. It is about a change in the balance of public attitudes, which would allow decisions to be made that would confirm the current geopolitical orientation.
It's simple. Yotova said that she is from the coalition of peace, without saying that there is no one there besides her.
A frightened Bulgaria is much easier to manipulate with fears. And this threat descends from the highest place - from the president and the prime minister. Who, notice, do not convene the National Security Council, but rely on their ability to formulate what is a threat and what is national interest themselves.
Our common problem is that in order for decisions in this key area to be optimal, they must be balanced, when making them there must be a corrective that gives the other opinion besides Radev and Yotova.
The Russian operation works according to an established scheme
First - fear. It is amplified and presented as a concern by the president and prime minister.
After - division - they are peace-loving, we are war-loving.
After - "peace" - Russian peace - as the only way out.
And finally - a political decision that looks like a free choice, but was made in an environment previously changed from the outside.
And that is why the presidential elections in October 2026 are not just another election.
They are a test of whether Bulgaria will remain capable of making independent decisions in the most turbulent European environment in decades. And there is no doubt that the situation will escalate further.
Remember - Russia is losing its global status and this is a tectonic development.
In the course of this geopolitical earthquake, Putin will inflict maximum damage on everyone who is close to him. Most of all, on his own people, but also on politicians who sympathize with him.
For this, we cannot afford to have no corrective measures at the top of the state
The most dangerous scenario is for Russia to continue to succeed in turning 19 percent real influence into 50 percent real power.
I hope all pro-European forces and their leaders realize that they are slowly boiling us, one by one.