The annual meeting of the UN General Assembly begins on Tuesday. Most readers will take this news as ordinary, the imagination will habitually paint the image of hundreds of state leaders in similar ties or exotic national costumes, uttering traditional pathetic words about local or global problems. It seems that this will be just another ritualistic event in the great hall of the UN, which will not really have any impact on life in Brussels, Paris or Prague.
But not this time. This General Assembly may become the beginning of tectonic processes that will directly affect the comfort zone in which ordinary European citizens so strive to live. The reason for this is China.
At first it was not thought that it would appear to be a serious threat. At the end of the General Assembly, they will discuss one of the most pressing problems on the world agenda - how to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine. Sincere or hypocritical words are heard about the need to end the war, various participants will again talk about their willingness to become peacemakers or mediators.
But it seems Beijing is serious this time and expects to firmly take the initiative into its own hands. The timing contributes to this - the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election opens a window of opportunity for the country. Addressing the UN audience and citing the support of many countries in the Global South for the Brazil-China “6-Point Consensus” initiative, China can now offer a real plan to “end the war” with specific events and timelines. And in this way to start the process of Russian-Ukrainian settlement according to the Chinese scenario.
Of course, in words this will not look like China's plan. On the contrary, it will be constantly emphasized that behind the initiative is the Global South (as amorphous as this term may seem), the BRICS, or even more so the “world majority”. To begin with, Beijing can simply gather a few dozen ministers or senior representatives from Global South countries on the sidelines of the General Assembly (of course, Ukrainians will not be invited to this meeting) to form some sort of “core” of a group that in the future could rapidly expand to include other countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia or regional international organizations.
But this will definitely not be a plan for Europe, on whose territory the biggest conflict since World War II is being fought, and it will certainly not be a plan for Ukraine, whose president Volodymyr Zelensky is persistently pushing his version of a just peace.< /p>
Of course, the Chinese plan will contain many fine words, in particular appropriate and inappropriate references to the UN Charter. By manipulation of words, the mention of the principle of respect for sovereignty, such a sensitive principle for any victim of invasion by a neighbor, can be made as vague and unspecific as possible, shifting the emphasis to “taking into account the security interests of each country” (the favorite wording of all peace-dreaming autocratic regimes who dream of spheres of influence). But under a good verbal shell there will be a simple essence - a chilling war. The freeze is the result of a hidden ultimatum by Ukraine (and therefore its allies) on behalf of China, which will be covered by the role of a spokesperson for the interests of the “world majority”. At the same time, a freeze that will bring extraordinary dividends to China.
Where does the danger lie?
First, Beijing's plan is beneficial for Russia. After all, this undermines all efforts by Ukraine to organize a major peace summit where the terms of peace on the continent are discussed with the participation of Kiev, Moscow and other interested countries.
Of course, the Chinese plan does not envisage a Russian victory, as presented by Russian propaganda, in the form of a tricolor over Kharkiv, Kiev or Odessa, a constitutional renunciation of the legitimate territories of Ukraine, or an immediate lifting of Western sanctions. The Chinese plan is more about, as they call it in Beijing, “preventing the loss of Russia” in a war whose main beneficiary has long been China (let's just remember the volumes of natural resources that Moscow is forced to give to China for next to nothing in exchange for continued supplies of critical products).
Of course, for such a favor, Moscow will pay Beijing with even greater concessions, otherwise the continuous movement of Russian dependence on China, which the Russians try so hard not to notice, will accelerate even more.
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And secondly, the success of the Chinese plan will also be a major foreign policy success for China, the consequences of which are difficult to overestimate. Beijing will not only secure its role as leader of the Global South, leveling the West's influence and crystallizing a "majority coalition" loyal to China in the Russian-Ukrainian agreement. The Celestial Empire will try to “assemble“ the global security architecture in its own way. Build a world where not international law but Beijing will become the key arbiter in all conflicts.
And let's go back to Europe. What is Hecuba to him or he to Hecuba? What do we Europeans have to do with this China-Brazil
global politics
Chinese initiatives or Sino-Russian trade. Why should we be wary of Chinese initiatives on the sidelines of the General Assembly? Moreover, this initiative by Beijing is only the first stage; its real contours and scale will be seen later - in a month at the BRICS summit in Kazan or later - during the "peace conference" called by Beijing. Or even during the climax of the drama - during the China-initiated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, where both sides will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table (of course, with Chinese mediation, but so that the picture does not happen be so grim, Beijing would very much like to include mediators, one of the powerful European actors).
The answer is easy. Brussels, Paris, Berlin and other European capitals must clearly understand the unacceptability of the idea of resolving any conflict by imposing ultimatums from China (even camouflaged as an expression of the “will of the world majority”) to the parties to the conflict . , especially on the victim of aggression.
One fine day in September 1939 openly questioned the European security architecture. We must ensure that the coming September days in New York do not turn into an invisible “beginning of the end” of European subjectivity.
Vladimir Rostotsky
Russian political scientist